Mentions
Extended reach
Total likes
Video views
AI synopsis
The collective discussions highlight the importance of the article by citing precise estimates like 5-8% cCFR and 0.5-0.8% IFR, with tone ranging from technical (discussing modeling methods) to urgent (highlighting COVID-19's pandemic potential), which demonstrates both active interest and assessment of the findings' significance.
Most discussions agree that the article estimates the COVID-19 fatality risk to be between 0.5% and 8%, supporting the study’s conclusions about the potential severity.
Posts show high interest by referencing specific estimates, methodologies, and implications, indicating active engagement with the research.
Several discussions delve into methodological details, compare findings across different studies, and question estimates, reflecting deep engagement.
The discussions emphasize the significance of the findings for understanding COVID-19’s threat, with many calling attention to the implications of the high fatality risks and the potential for a pandemic, indicating high impact.
We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYgBSIE https://t.co/1E3Eyrwpw9 https://t.co/6mHW6OgQrl They all estimate 0.5-1.6% in other words the coronavirus is 5x-16x deadlier than the flu (0.1%)
"In conclusion, the present study has estimated cCFR [confirmed Case Fatality Ratio] to be on the order of 5%–8% and R₀ to be 1.6–4.2, endorsing the notion that COVID-19 infection in the ongoing epidemic possesses the potential to become a pandemic." https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy
以下で、この数値がおかしいという話をします。 示したのは西浦氏が会議に出した資料です。 ここには2つの論文が出てきて、1つ目が "Jung et https://t.co/cNF3gbiRLu.2020,9,523" です。 これは https://t.co/7FJ5gNrBzz だと思われます。西浦氏はこの論文の共著者です。 → https://t.co/TrOh1edRED
Jung et al looked at ex-China data and estimated R0 was as high as 3.7 and crude CFR was 5.3% (3.5, 7.5). “considering that about 9% of all infected individuals are ascertained and reported, the...IFR...would be on the order of 0.5% to 0.8%.” https://t.co/iqn83IAR7u
@dotansh1 כמה מהמאמרים בנושא: https://t.co/TBX4imlSEr https://t.co/FrHjv6iUm9 https://t.co/63r4Vj70Gs https://t.co/lupxKvD6QF
@epsilon3141 @C_Althaus This is my current list of cfr/ifr models, I'd be thankful if you have anything you can add to it, or if you think one of these is obviously bad: https://t.co/TBX4imlSEr https://t.co/FrHjv6iUm9 https://t.co/UlL2BtTMMS https://t.co/zFmL68Gxjn https://t.co/dufw3AS5sq
This study investigates the amount of SARS-CoV-2 virus present in upper respiratory specimens to understand contagiousness. It emphasizes the importance of early testing and isolation to prevent COVID-19 spread.
This video explores the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. It discusses key findings on species adaptation, habitat loss, and conservation strategies in the face of rising temperatures and ocean…
The study reports on four COVID-19 patients treated with a combination of Chinese and Western medicines, including antivirals and traditional Chinese medicine, showing varied clinical improvements and suggesting…
The study investigates the amount of SARS-CoV-2 virus present in the upper respiratory specimens of infected patients to understand how contagious they might be. Viral load varies during infection and peaks around…
This case involves a 54-year-old South Korean male, the third confirmed COVID-19 patient, causing secondary and tertiary transmissions, highlighting rapid spread. Treatment with lopinavir-ritonavir showed a significant…
This video discusses a study on four COVID-19 patients treated with combined Chinese and Western medicines, showing potential benefits and clinical improvements, highlighting the need for further research to confirm…
This study investigates SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in upper respiratory specimens to assess contagiousness. Viral load varies during infection and peaks around symptom onset, emphasizing early testing and isolation to…
This video examines a 54-year-old male COVID-19 case in South Korea, highlighting rapid virus spread and the potential effectiveness of lopinavir-ritonavir therapy in reducing viral loads and managing pneumonia.
This video discusses a study of four COVID-19 pneumonia patients treated with a combination of Chinese and Western medicines, including antivirals and traditional Chinese medicine, showing different levels of…
@grok "0.3% to 0.6%" https://t.co/Xd8bH54cIP "approximately 1%" https://t.co/I5yzyDDxDQ [https://t.co/2KQgps1faK] "0.5% to 0.8%" https://t.co/7FKl3OMjcn "0.94" https://t.co/38qTY1VwDA "0.9%" https://t.co/ZJQFMNg4EO "0.5–0.7%" https://t.co/Y2LwojCThr https://t.co/Mf6AwqIPQy
@mjtimber2 @LauraPowellEsq @Marco_Piani @nytimes @DrJBhattacharya It's just wild to give Bhattacharya credit instead of those who gave better estimates weeks earlier. 4 Feb 2020: "(IFR) [...] is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%" https://t.co/Xd8bH54Kyn 14 Feb 2020: "(IFR) [...] would be on the order of 0.5% to 0.8%." https://t.co/7FKl3OMR1V
@mar15164 @quay_dr Interesting. I wonder why they split it in 2 papers. The CFR got peer reviewed 1 month earlier ( June vs July) Only paper I found published IN february was another CFR paper based on exported cases https://t.co/t5CJyGdmC3
0.5-0.8 https://t.co/3xZ243agYR 0.5-0.7 https://t.co/UQgFAkkigu
しかしcCFRの元となった論文はその後別の数字となって査読され発行された、この時IFRについても修正され、0.3-0.6ではなく「0.5-0.8となる」と記述されている、 上記論文で引用したと思しきverのプレプリント https://t.co/cE3uT6jKEp 査読後 https://t.co/3xZ243rk0R
cCFRが3-6% https://t.co/cE3uT6jKEp Tが7.5のとき、IFRが0.3-0.6% https://t.co/OJP1SkSG9E cCFRが5-8% https://t.co/3xZ243rk0R
RT @JCM_MDPI: #mdpijcm
#mdpijcm
RT @km_jetta: #mdpijcm Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Case…
RT @momo0078: Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https:/…
RT @alistmit: Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https:/…
RT @hichachu: #mdpijcm Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Case…
#mdpijcm
@juanmoretime16 @fman123 @jordanbpeterson https://t.co/qn9DHD4rjY
#mdpijcm
#mdpijcm Welcome to read the #article: Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of #Death from Novel Coronavirus (#covid19) #Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases by Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura et al. More info: https://t.co/JmM70HTyYu @HokkaidoUni https://t.co/BBB1RnPUKc
@sarkov28 @mstk_Horiguchi 致死率については以下の西浦の論文をもとに「3から6である」としています、が、改訂後発行された論文では「3から6である」というのは確認できません Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https://t.co/yJekTuEwfs https://t.co/SlaiSmtXd8
@sarkov28 @mstk_Horiguchi 上記論文のタイトルは 「Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases」 新型コロナ死亡リスクのリアルタイム推定を、輸出された症例数、つまり「中国以外で発見された症例数」を元に行った、というものです
@sarkov28 @mstk_Horiguchi ここで「r=0.14である」として参照された論文、スクリプト群を明記しておきます、スクリプト作成者は先ほどのSerial Intervalのスクリプト作成者と同じだと思われます、 論文では「指数関数的成長率rはシナリオ1で0.15である」となっています https://t.co/3xZ243agYR https://t.co/UNdjEDBujw https://t.co/jB4HnacaoU
RT @sarkov28: 以下で、この数値がおかしいという話をします。 示したのは西浦氏が会議に出した資料です。 ここには2つの論文が出てきて、1つ目が "Jung et https://t.co/cNF3gbiRLu.2020,9,523" です。 これは https:…
以下で、この数値がおかしいという話をします。 示したのは西浦氏が会議に出した資料です。 ここには2つの論文が出てきて、1つ目が "Jung et https://t.co/cNF3gbiRLu.2020,9,523" です。 これは https://t.co/7FJ5gNrBzz だと思われます。西浦氏はこの論文の共著者です。 → https://t.co/TrOh1edRED
@FrBailo @EasyInve These are symptoms onset to death distributions. You need to convolve them with exposure to symptoms onset distribution (which is about 5.5 days) (e. G. See here https://t.co/K0yzS860np)
6. Real-time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: inference using exported cases https://t.co/r2jm1QQnui 7. Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infection: A statistical analysis of publicly - - https://t.co/qc7h8EBZjA
@ScienceNFreedom @forthefurture @RepAndyBiggsAZ I'm going to cite scientific evidence rebutting your nonsense, one more time on each thread When u fail to address it, as I predict, I'll have fun citing this thread to people later, as an example of how disingenuous denialists like u operate
@kvegasgrl I get what you're saying, but even back in March we knew COVID-19's IFR was around 10 times (or more) the seasonal flu's IFR of ~0.02 - 0.05%. Ioannidis is without excuse. https://t.co/kWi6JkWooS https://t.co/uM6Lkezjlj https://t.co/jodHxU93cm https://t.co/FHS2tx6Gm7 https://t.co/vqqg2vH4Q8
RT @ResearcherLife_: An estimated cCFR and basic reproduction rate can help us learn more about COVID-19. From our Recommended reads sectio…
An estimated cCFR and basic reproduction rate can help us learn more about COVID-19. From our Recommended reads section - "Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection": https://t.co/HyMG1Pk5Yb #epidemiology #EpiTwitter https://t.co/9IYfayGCJq
@HBro27816268 @MrBruccio @ATomalty @ProfTimNoakes 4. https://t.co/uylSkMb3xd
@RyuichiYoneyama 西浦らのR0=1.7は 1. 1/29投稿 https://t.co/2EZDImImA0 2. 2/14投稿 https://t.co/KVgb0aLKb7 1.は中国からの輸入症例による推定(R0=2.1または3.2) 2.は感染リンクが判明しているデータからの世代時間T=4.2日(serial interval) の推定です。
https://t.co/MJ5Ub31FRE
https://t.co/LUmIW6Hxut そして共同でこの論文が書かれた。ガンマ分布を使っている。イギリスの例のシミュレーションより少し早いものの、試算がたった２パターン。これで全力でしたかそうですか。
@RAVerBruggen @lymanstoneky Yeah, not sure 20 day window before appreciable effects. Mean time from infection to onset about 5 days (per his figures) and just looking at one of his cites (below), there sure seem to be a sizable chunk of effects from days 6-11. https://t.co/9wGSjeY6EG
@PatBayerNC @davidsabrams @jenniferdoleac See Section 3 of this... https://t.co/0nYD6vA6d3
@sjwrenlewis We don't know yet if they have. There are bound to be mistakes along the way in all countries. It takes time to persuade a nation to lockdown, too. Finally, look at the width of the confidence intervals as late as February, things really are unclear https://t.co/lJzyIBsuGK https://t.co/WD5mcNIHmD
@sjturn This worth a look https://t.co/5NLcoXP4SW
@temptoetiam @firefoxx66 This peper is helpful https://t.co/5NLcoXP4SW
Jung et al looked at ex-China data and estimated R0 was as high as 3.7 and crude CFR was 5.3% (3.5, 7.5). “considering that about 9% of all infected individuals are ascertained and reported, the...IFR...would be on the order of 0.5% to 0.8%.” https://t.co/iqn83IAR7u
RT @kimitakatajimi: Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases h…
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https://t.co/qDIxDhAn4f #Japan
@DrKoWN_ @hutchinson Here we see where researches looked at the actual data in China and found cause for alarm in relation to mortality rates: https://t.co/NPhromIr5X
@andre_peralta The model is the same as this one (https://t.co/BLxlsCVVcE). Regarding the R_0 vs R_t, it is a complex debate that goes beyond twitter, but in summary when a disease is novel and the entire population is susceptible, there is not much difference (but we have interventions).
@vitualis @MicrobialLife https://t.co/6TkA1ILpnc
@vitualis @MicrobialLife https://t.co/5cldOAYfDZ › pdfPDF Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection ...
@eduardao89 @izabellacoelhop https://t.co/bJ5krGNcF6, n precisa ir muito fundo pra procurar dados. Existem inumeros ensaios sobre isso. Google academico ta ai pra isso
@SebsH4 Igual acá hay que contemplar el sub-registro de casos no? Las estimaciones que he visto no pasan del 2% de mortalidad. Muchas, bastante por debajo: https://t.co/f9C2SLKN9X
@carlos_cagm @paperezvalencia @GabrielaTafur Por ejemplo, https://t.co/PIPzEJQh1T
@PDawg013 @GeorgeGuiCO @gugachacra Diisse baseado no que os cientistas dizem, prefiro acreditar em cientistas do que em jornalista tuiteiro. https://t.co/j0AXyUsSbz "...Our cCFR estimates of 5.3% and 8.4% indicate that the severity of COVID-19 is not as high as that of other diseases caused by coronaviruses ..."
Trend new: *Jung SM* et al (J Clin Med) __Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases__ https://t.co/HdEBCgxI31
Algunas publicaciones relevantes y útiles para comprender más: https://t.co/wkP2d7l4v4 https://t.co/3fKldTTeN4 https://t.co/sCyuH5R2tQ
Trend new: *Jung SM* et al (J Clin Med) __Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases__ https://t.co/HdEBCgxI31
Trend up+10: *Jung SM* et al (J Clin Med) __Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases__ https://t.co/HdEBCgxI31
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https://t.co/XF5J0WiTw7
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
RT @zorinaq: We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYg…
We have a total of 4 studies estimating the Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID19: https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy https://t.co/FDINYgBSIE https://t.co/1E3Eyrwpw9 https://t.co/6mHW6OgQrl They all estimate 0.5-1.6% in other words the coronavirus is 5x-16x deadlier than the flu (0.1%)
Creo que es un buen momento para recordar este paper en el que estimaban el riesgo real de fallecimiento por la infección intentando corregir el sesgo del denominador... Y obtenían entre un 0,5% y un 0,8%. Diana. https://t.co/Ehv18R8uoO https://t.co/MwfOgOwdZm
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases @MDPIOpenAccess https://t.co/Jz5Aq1xZ0b
RT @joshuafkon: 4.6% or 7.7% Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using export…
4.6% or 7.7% Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases https://t.co/xnxq6GFKQb
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases. https://t.co/b4U8ZAFW01
訂正、西浦教授らの論文はあり。 https://t.co/1XvIoe1TfB Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University 筆頭著者が日本人ではなかったので勘違いしてしまった。 https://t.co/ropzqX4TZe
@alias_real Woher haben Sie ihre Zahl? Wie berechnet? Unsere Zahl stammt von hier: https://t.co/mzcE6hLueZ Aber vielleicht zeigen Sie uns ja, dass hier eine falsche Rechnung vorliegt. Bin gespannt.
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https://t.co/pM0vcfNY24 #Pandemic #CoronavirusUpdates #Coronavirus
NCOVID-19 mortality rate is drastically underestimated at 2%. True CFR is 5-8% according to new study. Info and explanation comments https://t.co/jHk8u69UvK
بحث حديث منشور في : https://t.co/l2uidAIE2C يقدر خطر الوفاة بين جميع أفراد عينات الدراسة في حدود 0.5 ٪ إلى 0.8 ٪. البحث جميل ويعطي أفكار كاملة وشاملة للمزيد حول فهم هذا الفيروس اللعين . الله يحفظنا جميعا بحفظه. #كرونا_في_الكويت
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https://t.co/e0hEi1Y2ZE
https://t.co/c3IWw8AiWe
Study estimates cCFR to be on the order of 5%–8% and R0 to be 1.6–4.2. cCFR confirmed case fatality ratio R0 avg number of people infected from one other person CFR for the Spanish (1918) flu was >2.5% other pandemics < 0.1 IFR ~ .5 -.8 #COVID19 https://t.co/IW6eCVxfLa
This study completed in late-January using data available at that point estimates a cCFR (confirmed case fatality rate) between 5-8%. https://t.co/NHPbCKC0Zs #Coronavirus #COVIDー19
@EricaannBender @bsmeline @CDCgov https://t.co/KC7M1hTKLt
@epsilon3141 @C_Althaus This is my current list of cfr/ifr models, I'd be thankful if you have anything you can add to it, or if you think one of these is obviously bad: https://t.co/TBX4imlSEr https://t.co/FrHjv6iUm9 https://t.co/UlL2BtTMMS https://t.co/zFmL68Gxjn https://t.co/dufw3AS5sq
#mdpijcm Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases @JCM_MDPI
RT @zorinaq: "In conclusion, the present study has estimated cCFR [confirmed Case Fatality Ratio] to be on the order of 5%–8% and R₀ to be…
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases https://t.co/nhQgXHnxLy
@dotansh1 כמה מהמאמרים בנושא: https://t.co/TBX4imlSEr https://t.co/FrHjv6iUm9 https://t.co/63r4Vj70Gs https://t.co/lupxKvD6QF
@LariatDavid @Knwl1129 @matthewstoller "The latest est values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was est to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) & 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scen 1 and 2, respectively." https://t.co/oEOyIb9kz6
New article: Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases. https://t.co/fZZKpNH87o #coronavirus #wuhan #2019ncov
RT @zorinaq: "In conclusion, the present study has estimated cCFR [confirmed Case Fatality Ratio] to be on the order of 5%–8% and R₀ to be…
RT @zorinaq: "In conclusion, the present study has estimated cCFR [confirmed Case Fatality Ratio] to be on the order of 5%–8% and R₀ to be…
"In conclusion, the present study has estimated cCFR [confirmed Case Fatality Ratio] to be on the order of 5%–8% and R₀ to be 1.6–4.2, endorsing the notion that COVID-19 infection in the ongoing epidemic possesses the potential to become a pandemic." https://t.co/MWYOsQWwQy
#mdpijcm Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases @JCM_MDPI we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic.
Contribute a rapid review or request one for "Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection..." (https://t.co/unJNiJIW6K). "Add" or "Request" w/DOI (10.1101/2020.01.29.20019547) at https://t.co/RnurTL3DyM @outbreaksci @PREreview_
Updated #COVID19 preprint: Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases https://t.co/unJNiJIW6K
#SARSCoV2 Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases Sung-mok Jung et al https://t.co/UQ83J9wR3g
Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases https://t.co/1uIH84nAF1
死亡率の推定： Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases https://t.co/jG9OFLGodf
Contribute a rapid review or request one for "Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection..." (https://t.co/unJNiJIW6K). "Add" or "Request" w/DOI (10.1101/2020.01.29.20019547) at https://t.co/RnurTL3DyM @outbreaksci @PREreview_
New #2019nCoV preprint: Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases https://t.co/unJNiJIW6K
RT @medrxivpreprint: Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases…
RT @medrxivpreprint: Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases…
RT @medrxivpreprint: Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases…
Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases https://t.co/mrXc0xCtGw #medRxiv
SB
T