Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses.

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses - Shaw Stewart - - Reviews in Medical Virology - Wiley Online Library https://t.co/mKGz55owlS

3⃣My co-author @JuliaLBach8 & I showed that many/most respiratory viruses possess natural thermal sensitivity - they replicate faster below normal body temperature, confining them to the cooler upper airways. https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

“Now, with fall pushing people indoors and threatening a new wave of infections...” Can’t miss out on chance to add in my paper, which suggests it’s temperature change and not crowding that does this!

@Elex_Michaelson We will get a winter surge. But not because we don’t have enough vaccinated. Because it’s winter and that’s what viruses do during winter. We don’t have a sterilizing vaccine. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

A great conversation with @alisonmorrowTV and @JuliaLBach8 about our paper and why we get more colds and flu - and more Covid - in winter https://t.co/WumvnhYqb2

@give_henry @Lorenzo7127 @DrNeilStone “The majority of confirmed and probable cases must have been infected 2–4 days before the day of the rehearsal.” Or, as my co-author and I say, virus was spread long before and was awakened by the same environmental stimulus (temperature). https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@PatrickSSte @gadboit @Micheal2055288 You're not trustworthy after that paper you co-authored with @JuliaLBach8 on the relationship between virulence vs. transmissibility. That was falsified by alpha and delta variants being more transmissible and more virulent. https://t.co/Qf1QO1XCKa https://t.co/b2sKKCjXv1 https://t.co/aCjZUmBdYk

@PutAimovigOnNHS @feliciahsiehsw @vipintukur > Your paper doesn't even discuss the gathering of people. I’m not sure which paper you’re talking about but search for “crowding” in this paper: Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM You’ll see it’s discussed in detail

@x3r0gx4 @Paul_Briley @vipintukur This is all discussed in the review by me and @JuliaLBach8 https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@AlexBerenson Or maybe the 5-6 months was just seasonality. https://t.co/SY0SswcMPn

@katz_2022 @IanCopeland5 https://t.co/SY0SswcMPn

@mjtimber2 @justin_hart @massbless @AlecStapp I suggest you read the paper I co-authored about why that might not be true. https://t.co/SY0SswcMPn

@DrNeilStone At the wrong time of year, not during an active seasonal outbreak, and for too short of a time. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@tonkatonkadc @DrNeilStone @grok We likely also have some very erroneous current ideas as well about how human respiratory viruses circulate and start epidemics. A paper I coauthored: https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

RT @JuliaLBach8: It’s a great time for a journalist to delve into why respiratory outbreaks start. @PatrickSSte and I suggest that viruses…

@Rachelreeve5 @TakeThatNurses I co-authored a paper in 2021 that hypothesized a different way of thinking about viral outbreaks - that viruses spread year round and can sit dormant in our bodies before being activated by a trigger (temperature change). https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@jpnairn @TakeThatNurses If viruses circulate 24/7/365, how do you “mitigate” spread year-round? https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@TakeThatNurses I’m sorry you view scientists that way. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@hamandpineappl1 @sealteamUK @erturklab @cellhostmicrobe But virtually all respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, are thermally sensitive in the lab and in animals Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM Letter https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL

Review of seasonality etc, is here:https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM SARS-CoV-2 is thermally sensitive in the lab and in animals: https://t.co/u2mULPv3KX SARS-CoV-2 is a respiratory virus. Will it become mild like a cold? Almost certainly, although the timing is uncertain (just

@MichaelSFuhrer Virtually all respiratory virus including flu, RSV, rhino, seasonal CoV etc are thermally sensitive: https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

RT @PatrickSSte:

RT @PatrickSSte: 3⃣My co-author @JuliaLBach8 & I showed that many/most respiratory viruses possess natural thermal sensitivity - they repli…

Perhaps because it requires an infectious agent AND the right conditions for that agent to activate. https://t.co/fG3hUhwCo1 https://t.co/1BSpG3Iogl

@PatrickSSte @_everythingism @BillyBostickson @CallumJCParr @flodebarre @franciscodeasis That is what you said. And you were refuted by delta, which was both more transmissible + more virulent. You + Bach were non-expert contrarian ideologues messing up in topics you did not understand. https://t.co/OV5ZRGcjfv https://t.co/D4SSzG12Nk https://t.co/b2sKKCjXv1 https://t.co/u8PZiPFFIY

@breakfast_dogs @DrHermiz The following paper by @PatrickSSte was helpful to me in understanding why the nose was important to focus on in combatting covid19 and any other airborne virus for that matter. Antiviral nasal sprays are the solution. https://t.co/PDjhnbQJHR

@ejustin46 In this SC2 is following many other respiratory viruses THis is the temperature-dependent viral tropism hypothesis: the nose/throat are colder than the lungs. Thermal sensitivity allows resp viruses to replicate there without immobilizing the host 1/ https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@Harvard2H Could be But not necessarily Virtually all respiratory viruses are thermally-sensitive: they replicate faster below normal body temp. Keep the host mobile - nose and throat are cooler than lungs https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM SC2 is no exception: https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL

@hstupak1 Whatever anyone’s hypothesis about this is, we need to emphasize that 1) trying to stop transmission is a fool’s errand, and 2) seasonal viruses likely are activated by environmental factors, mostly beyond our control. https://t.co/fG3hUhwCo1

@hstupak1 Hi @hstupak1, this is an interesting hypothesis to put in the plurality. @PatrickSSte https://t.co/gVRQQvjheo

RT @JuliaLBach8: @FatherNaugle Yes, welcome to the predictable time of year where viruses transmitted year-round and adapted to local envir…

@FatherNaugle Yes, welcome to the predictable time of year where viruses transmitted year-round and adapted to local environments are activated by temperature fluctuations. https://t.co/fG3hUhwCo1

@KelleyKga Thinking about what causes respiratory outbreaks needs an overhaul. Viruses circulate constantly but are active at certain times, which likely have little to do with interaction. We focus too much on transmission when there is an activation step, too. https://t.co/fG3hUhwCo1

@CharmsYahoo This paper by @PatrickSSte explains the temperature sensitivity of viruses and one can extrapolate from this why products like Viraleze and Sanotize are effective at preventing and treating covid19 or any other airborne virus for that matter. https://t.co/O7zkfjy3g6

@fergal_whatever @P_J_Buckhaults @TheOlsonLab Or perhaps this is virus biology and not human behavior. https://t.co/gkn3Qd5kPG https://t.co/vRZQ2S0p23

@P_J_Buckhaults PCR only tests for the physical presence or absence of viral genomic material. It does not give you any information about what state that viral genomic material is in. Given that viruses circulate in the body year-round, it’s not useful for most patients. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@HouseCracka @Richard11146509 @junogsp7 @RandPaul @RepublicanChick @RepThomasMassie What if viruses spread year round but only are activated to cause disease with certain seasonal catalysts? https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@anomalocaris19 @Debunk_the_Funk @elonmusk https://t.co/gkn3Qd5kPG

@breakfast_dogs @VaccaRules For influenza etc several ts functions have been identified See our table 5 https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@WashburneAlex Eg 2: (my own work) why do we get more colds in winter? Letter https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM 3/

@BillHanage Perhaps it is not so much viral transmission (which happens year round) but activation, which is dependent upon environmental factors, namely temperature. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

RT @JuliaLBach8: What if we challenge the idea that it is students’ return to classrooms that kicks off respiratory virus waves? We had CO…

RT @JuliaLBach8: What if we challenge the idea that it is students’ return to classrooms that kicks off respiratory virus waves? We had CO…

What if we challenge the idea that it is students’ return to classrooms that kicks off respiratory virus waves? We had COVID waves in the years when a lot of schools were still virtual, right? What if it’s temperature changes? https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV https://t.co/Eiq2629VOO

RT @JuliaLBach8: It’s a great time for a journalist to delve into why respiratory outbreaks start. @PatrickSSte and I suggest that viruses…

@ErikMagnethi @KanekoaTheGreat All you can really say is all respiratory viruses (but not other viruses) have winter seasonality There's a good explanation Letter https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@Johnincarlisle @YouTube See our papers eg https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL or my pinned tweet

@SFatumo I don't know IMO our paper is very important It was published in a high-impact journal But it's been completely ignored Clare Thomas wouldn't send it for review, but she was kind about it If she'd published it maybe many lives could have been saved https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@ukhadds @SuebeeTexan @0bj3ctivity @SolidEvidence @RadCentrism @notkent @MarvinH2_G2 @kallmemeg Our review link: https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM Secondly, I don't follow this very closely, but I understand these virus survival studies sometimes use solutions containing a lot of salt eg the one above uses Dulbecco's Modified Eagle Medium. This contains sodium

@mjtimber2 @19joho @Gretcie Please see Figure 14. https://t.co/U9RT0JjLz1

@JuliaLBach8 For posterity: Their paper was also wrong, given variants with both higher virulence + higher transmissibility than wild type SARS-CoV-2. https://t.co/s8zbflDFPs https://t.co/3HhXE8JQm0 https://t.co/ZcAPJzilZI Doesn't that undermine your paper?: https://t.co/b2sKKCjpFt https://t.co/Y6pSdAcNXE

@JuliaLBach8 @19joho @RoxanneHoge @eekymom @brownstoneinst @MartinKulldorff @CDCgov Also, did you ever address the evidence on variants with higher virulence than wild type SARS-CoV-2? https://t.co/URQF5Elmmg https://t.co/3HhXE8Koby https://t.co/ZcAPJziTPg Doesn't that undermine your paper?: https://t.co/b2sKKCjXv1 https://t.co/YVObgxpZzJ

@mdc_martinus @ukhadds @DrRussellBrown @DrJBhattacharya Our review: https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM SARS-CoV-2 is thermally sensitive in the wet-lab https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL

This thermal-sensitivity can be clearly seen in the wet-lab for both SARS-CoV-2 https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL . . . and for the other respiratory viruses https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM Is there something we don't understand?

@ukhadds @DrRussellBrown @DrJBhattacharya See our Table 2 for the first point See eg the study by Lidwell for the second point - references in our paper https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

RT @PatrickSSte: 3⃣My co-author @JuliaLBach8 & I showed that many/most respiratory viruses possess natural thermal sensitivity - they repli…

@CarstensenPovl @JuliaLBach8 Reference https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@msabouri Refs for low temp activation: Letter to Infectious Medicine https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@JeromeAdamsMD @armga6 There’s a difference between “active” and “inactive” disease states. Inactive benign tumors may not be removed because they aren’t a problem. Viruses may have “inactive” states that are not a concern, unless made active (perhaps by temperature changes). https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@ajlamesa Absolutely. The physical presence of a virus is not really useful information in most cases, especially if viruses do indeed have lifecycles where they are “on” sometimes and “off” other times (perhaps due to temperature changes). https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

Increased bile acid production may protect against respiratory illness - I have no idea if this is really important Seems overly complex, however, since we know many or most respiratory viruses are themselves thermally sensitive https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM https://t.co/DuuDcfUnQ6

@KelleyKga Since we can’t create a virus-free world, shouldn’t we focus on why a virus develops into an illness sometimes, but not all the time? Surely that would help, perhaps more than vaccines, handwashing or ventilation? https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

Waste of time and money. Instead of obsessively monitoring the air for the presence of a virus, why don’t we better understand viral outbreak triggers? https://t.co/fG3hUhwCo1 https://t.co/ncsjFkue8u

I reckon roughly 1/3 of Covid deaths could have been avoided if scientists had understood the importance of temperature for the avoidance of severe illness, and how resp viruses adapt to their climate and season Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM /4

What is very dissappointing and frustrating is that the two papers that @JuliaLBach8 and I published, and the other one I published, have been ignored : ( Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM 2016 review https://t.co/nb1RobC2qi Letter https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL 3/

@PatrickSSte @ProfessorAkston @EWoodhouse7 @EphemeralEther @HRenkel @GordonDomini @ClareCraigPath @USMortality Probably also a good time to remind people that the hypothesis in our paper is testable (Section 5.3) https://t.co/U9RT0JjdJt

@GordonDomini @EWoodhouse7 @ClareCraigPath @EphemeralEther @USMortality @ProfessorAkston @JuliaLBach8 As are many other respiratory viruses However they may lose thermal sensitivity in the lab - which has confused scientists https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@EWoodhouse7 @Lunatic__Fringe https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@cenobyte3 @EpiEllie Or some of us think that we may not understand viruses all that well. Here’s a paper I co-authored which questions what we think we know about viral transmission and outbreak instigation. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@DGBassani What if the virus was already there, but was just activated due to environmental conditions? What if we have transmission all wrong? https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

RT @JuliaLBach8: @mugecevik When only 2% of the people in the trial got COVID at all, wouldn’t it be interesting to see what other things m…

@rieser_mathsci I wouldn't use a SIR model for a respiratory illness anyway because there are so many asymptomatic carriers, who can become sick, particularly if they are chilled We wrote about this⬇️ Letter https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL Reviews in Medical Virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

Or it’s everywhere all at once, but it has an on/off switch and panic also led to deaths. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV https://t.co/a7nDDlRqp8

@Hold2LLC @abaryl @PostAp0calyptik @thereal_truther @justin_hart @AWokeZombie @Rational_Ground “SARS-CoV-2 data will continue to stream in, but it (already) appears to be affected by weather changes too rapid to be accounted for by increased transmission.” https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@zeynep @Craig_A_Spencer What if viruses spread in an inactive form and then are activated under certain conditions? If this is true, then myopic focus on preventing transmission is pointless. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@EWoodhouse7 @Alsadius @JeremyTColes @jen_pic @slikrik2003 @ClareCraigPath Thank you. To be brief, transmission is only one part of the story. Should probably consider adding viral activation, susceptibility and treatment as considerations for why anyone becomes ill with a respiratory virus. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@mjtimber2 @ScholerinED @davideyoungmd @jamesamcgee @thereal_truther @mahmudme01 @AJKayWriter @MojoRose1 @Balgor11 @TheDrJon @EWoodhouse7 @tanteOMI @Lucy26398575 If you would read my paper, you’d see that I don’t think it’s “random” either. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@mjtimber2 @ScholerinED @davideyoungmd @jamesamcgee @thereal_truther @mahmudme01 @AJKayWriter @MojoRose1 @Balgor11 @TheDrJon @EWoodhouse7 @tanteOMI @Lucy26398575 https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@SolidEvidence @VBruttel @jn44014998 Which seemed to be what virtually all virologists beleived, at least at the start of the pandemic I don't beleive that. As I tried to persuade you a few months ago IMO resp viruses want to replicate, but keep you moving around https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL

@mjtimber2 @thereal_truther @mahmudme01 @jamesamcgee @davideyoungmd @AJKayWriter @MojoRose1 @DancingBlue_Sky @Balgor11 @TheDrJon @EWoodhouse7 @tanteOMI @Lucy26398575 More on this in the paper I co-authored. https://t.co/SY0SswcMPn

@thereal_truther @dr_jon_l @AJKayWriter @jamesamcgee @DancingBlue_Sky @Balgor11 @davideyoungmd @MojoRose1 @TheDrJon @EWoodhouse7 @tanteOMI @Lucy26398575 https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@Marc_Veld @sfedelelondon (as pointed out by Ewald in 1983) https://t.co/srJnLlEWen 3. We can see this selection in action because most respiratory viruses are thermally-sensitive https://t.co/k5hRLaBF8k cont/

@MojoRose1 @jamesamcgee @DancingBlue_Sky @Balgor11 @thereal_truther @TheDrJon @AJKayWriter @EWoodhouse7 @tanteOMI @ProfessorAkston @Lucy26398575 That is one explanation. I think seasonality more likely, as in this paper I co-authored in May 2021 and updated letter (also attached). https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@fwinterauer @zeitferne Da hast Du sicher die komplette Literatur dazu gelesen? https://t.co/lTL77MLMiw

A study well worth reading!! https://t.co/B4q3GSNbCO

@ProfessorAkston @JuliaLBach8 @EWoodhouse7 @AJKayWriter @ALittleTweet @Lucy26398575 Reviews in medical virology https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM Recent letter https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL https://t.co/tMsPLbyLhU

@Factcheckmy0 @EWoodhouse7 If the hypothesis from my paper is correct, that steep of a curve can definitely have a biological cause. https://t.co/89ITbg9rMM

@EWoodhouse7 @oscarstolemycan @DavidMo50860521 @federicolois I agree with much of this, but do think viruses have an “on” switch (see below). I also think people in SD are exactly the kind of people not to buy into the national panic. Their Governor didn’t either, to a large extent. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@mapperdan @EWoodhouse7 @molsjames @Jikkyleaks @Fynnderella1 @erin_bsn @SenRonJohnson @cameronks Since I do think viruses have an “on” switch, this is possible, fake videos on social media notwithstanding. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

RT @JuliaLBach8: @IanCopeland5 @justin_hart Here’s the paper that I co-authored about the seasonal timing of viral outbreaks, which likely…

@IanCopeland5 @justin_hart Here’s the paper that I co-authored about the seasonal timing of viral outbreaks, which likely has far more to do with temperature deltas than human behavior (e.g. masking or lockdowns). https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@Jikkyleaks @boriquagato @EthicalSkeptic Seeded but not active until a trigger goes off, like temperature. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@KrauthBen The paper I wrote with my co-author suggests that transmission is not the end all be all variable to respiratory viral outbreaks. Like many biological processes, they likely need the proper conditions to replicate. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@KrauthBen https://t.co/89ITbg9rMM

@mallenbaker We reproduced this figure in our review (our point was that resp viruses tend to become milder) https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM Original reference https://t.co/cLFLbbxJRW

@goddeketal 3) Main lesson learned from original trials is that almost no one in either arm got COVID! During real outbreak, positivity would be much higher. Not relevant data. Probably tested during wrong season. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

RT @PatrickSSte: @AdamJKucharski @JuliaLBach8 @nicd_sa Adam, it may be that asymptomatic infection is the norm - ie we get sick when virus…

@Daoyu15 @emilyakopp The feet and hands are also often cold. We suggest that "Covid feet" often seen in children may represent CoV-2 that has reached the feet (presumably via the bloodstream). These blemishes look like clones⬇️ This figure comes from our review: cont/ https://t.co/k5hRLaBF8k https://t.co/xfAuP7J8LH

@benshapiro @RWMaloneMD Some looked at vaccine data and saw 95% efficacy. I looked and saw an experiment where almost no one in ether arm got COVID. Since positives run 10-30+% during outbreaks, it was a non relevant experiment, likely because they tested during wrong season. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@goddeketal I work in pharma and know how long it takes to properly test a new product, develop a manufacturing process, transfer it, validate it, and qualify it. Not possible in months w/o risk. Also vaxx tested mostly during off season and for too short duration. https://t.co/gkn3Qd5kPG

@anordinarygirl @VirginiaBuysse We address the “crowding” hypothesis in our paper. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@MelissaMazur9 @VirginiaBuysse Perhaps we should not assume we know everything there is to know about how germs work. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@LennyLLM @VirginiaBuysse Perhaps not directly, but could be a driver? https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@sammie9er @VirginiaBuysse Studies done years ago to show that cold does not cause respiratory viral outbreaks may have been done with lab strain viruses that don’t seem to have temperature sensitivity like wild type. We should revisit this concept and do more experiments. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@kawherp @Wills78650430 @VirginiaBuysse Our paper suggests that whole body temperature matters. A study that looked at insufficient clothing for cold temperatures found a correlation to increased viral respiratory illness. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV https://t.co/gFCoEf8g35

@BeejPrice @VirginiaBuysse Our paper suggests that studies done in the past to determine the effect of cold on respiratory viral illness may have used lab strains that had less temperature sensitivity than wild type. This sensitivity could benefit viruses wrt transmission. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@JosephCSlater @VirginiaBuysse Maybe those old wives were on to something, and respiratory illness outbreaks, caused by viruses that circulate year round, are more related to temperature changes (our paper below suggests viruses are activated by temperature deltas) than crowding. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@EWoodhouse7 @Hold2LLC @ii_plump 1) Is Spring the time when Vitamin D deficiency does actually play a role? (Although this should have been a problem in WA as well.) 2) Regional weather and poor temperature adaptation of viruses still worth considering? https://t.co/89ITbg9rMM

6⃣It’s clear many respiratory viruses can “lurk” in the airways, causing asymptomatic infections⬇️that can cause colds & flu when the temperature drops, eg flu & rhinovirus Refs in our review https://t.co/k5hRLaSIak Granados et al is good for hRV https://t.co/NlPXcVmjuI https://t.co/QyeyQTqikI

5⃣We suggest this reduces the chance that the virus will immobilise its host by infecting the lungs/sinuses etc sending us to bed. So temp sensitivity can encourage spreading (and keep virus in the upper airways from where transmission usually takes place) https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@robertson_lab @stuartjdneil @SGriffin_Lab @ArisKatzourakis We suggest thermal sensitivity allows virtually all respiratory viruses to confine themselves to the nose and throat, and avoid lower airway. This way it avoids making us really sick and preserves host mobility - helping to spread it https://t.co/k5hRLaSIak

RT @JuliaLBach8: @Zigmanfreud Good discussion on respiratory viral seasonality. I wish we would question our assumptions more about why sea…

@Zigmanfreud Good discussion on respiratory viral seasonality. I wish we would question our assumptions more about why seasonality is the way it is. It’s not human behavior, unless you are talking about wearing a coat when it’s cold. https://t.co/SY0SswunGV

3⃣My co-author @JuliaLBach8 & I showed that many/most respiratory viruses possess natural thermal sensitivity - they replicate faster below normal body temperature, confining them to the cooler upper airways. https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@elonmusk @BillyM2k @Vvilelyn Moderate resp virus strains tend to be selected over time after novel virus introduction, as viral transmission favors strains keeping us upright and passing it on. My co-author @PatrickSSte and I suggest this is accomplished thru temperature sensitivity. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@EphemeralEther @VaccaRules Well I agree with that! See section 3.4 in our review and the references in table 6⬇️ https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM https://t.co/E8j2kdsc58

See also the recommendations at the end of our review: https://t.co/k5hRLaBF8k

All in our review⬇️

Moreover, a series of experiments in the 1950s &60s showed chilling did NOT increase the chance of getting a cold. (@JuliaLBach8 & I believe these expts were misinterpreted – our best explanation is in our review. Hint: wild-type viruses weren’t used.) 9/ https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

Actually more helpful than 99% of what @lapublichealth says. Not useful to wear a mask, but put on your coat when it’s cold outside, just like your grandma told you to. https://t.co/SY0SswunGV https://t.co/lcB2i26wwv

@covidtweets @misfiles76 @nycexpatmom https://t.co/SY0SswunGV

@KrauthBen @nycexpatmom My co-author @PatrickSSte and I reference the “crowding” hypothesis in our review, which notes that if it were a main driver, outbreaks would start in cities and go to the country. Instead, they start in an area at once, likely due to temperature changes. https://t.co/SY0SswdkEV

@ReopenCASchools @nycexpatmom https://t.co/89ITbg9rMM

@LeeGarcia85 @nycexpatmom This is true, we just don’t think vit D levels are what *starts* it. Humidity is bound up with temperature. Our paper goes into this. https://t.co/89ITbfRiyE

@HjgTweet @nycexpatmom Our paper explains that we suggest experiments decades ago used lab strains of virus that may have lost some of their temperature sensitivity, leading to erroneous conclusions. https://t.co/SY0SswunGV

@nycexpatmom Glad to see this most important question, instead of making assumptions. My co-author @PatrickSSte and I adress the “immune defense” idea for resp virus season in our paper. We suggest that viruses are temperature sensitive, activating due to temp deltas. https://t.co/SY0SswunGV

@PK23993219 This has also been shown for influenza, rhinovirus and other resp viruses - references are in table 5 of our review⬇️ https://t.co/k5hRLaBF8k https://t.co/3sCP3a4iN0

@JeremyFarrar @MarionKoopmans Recommendations for experiments etc are at the end of our review https://t.co/k5hRLaBF8k

@emlitofnote @DrJBhattacharya @akheriaty Better to wear a coat when it’s cold or raining outside! https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

Virologists believe that viruses don't "want" to kill their hosts But there may be more to it than that Maybe they don't want to make their hosts so sick that they stop moving around That's what temperature dependent viral tropism #TDVT suggests⬇️ https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM

@citlanx @mahmudme01 @linseymarr Mr. E, if you have a moment, have a quick look at our review and letter: https://t.co/k5hRLaB7iM https://t.co/gzF6UJ4AKL Our hypothesis is very simple – and it’s what our grandparents would have recognised: put on your coat, hat and gloves in cold weather 1/

@RoxanneHoge @MarlaTellez @lapublichealth @justin_hart @DrJBhattacharya @politicalmath @RichieofPi1 No, because viruses circulate year-round and masks do nothing to stop the onset of the temperature shifts caused by autumn/winter. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@HuchiTony @DrJBhattacharya @MichaelPatmasMD @jemergence There is probably quite a lot that we don’t understand/know, which is why I co-authored this paper. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@Son3Marine @MichaelPatmasMD @jemergence @DrJBhattacharya What I support is the idea that viruses circulate year-round (in vaccinated and unvaccinated alike) but remain dormant until seasonal environmental triggers (i.e. temperature change) activates the virus. My paper: https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

RT @JuliaLBach8: “Now, with fall pushing people indoors and threatening a new wave of infections...” Can’t miss out on chance to add in my…

“Now, with fall pushing people indoors and threatening a new wave of infections...” Can’t miss out on chance to add in my paper, which suggests it’s temperature change and not crowding that does this!

@LizHabib @Zigmanfreud The tweet I mistakenly deleted: I co-authored a paper in 2021 about how focusing on transmission (with crowding, etc.) proceeding to disease is a flawed model for outbreaks. Probably there is an activation step, and certainly a question of susceptibility. https://t.co/OmozlfYzcP

@LizHabib @Zigmanfreud We focus on transmission (with crowding, etc.) proceeding directly to illness when there’s probably additional factors, namely viral activation and susceptibility. I co-authored a paper on this in 2021, which attributes activation to temperature change. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@GMarctweets @Brkr_Morant @billmaher Yes, likely because viruses transmit year-round and activate to cause illness in the same geographic area at once (high and low density), likely because of temperature changes. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@gregggonsalves It was likely present much earlier than that, since respiratory viruses circulate year-round, but only activate under certain conditions, likely due to temperature changes. Get well soon. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@Omegawittif @claytondodds @cmclymer Other coronavirus outbreaks have moderated over time, long before vaccines were invented. My co-author and I suggest that this is related to virus adaptation to local temperature conditions (although prior immunity also likely contributor). https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@alexmeshkin Agreed that we should have a serious discussion about the shortcomings in our assumptions about how seasonal respiratory viruses are spread, activate and may be treated/avoided. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@DamnedYankeeTN @kgemeroy Not at all. COVID is harmful, especially to very elderly people, not really to people under 50-60. We always knew that. Most students and teachers fall into this age criteria. Viruses generally become less lethal over time, likely because of adaptation. https://t.co/8mJY5Vv149

@ValuesPolitical https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@ValuesPolitical https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@ValuesPolitical I invite you to read the paper I co-authored last year about how viruses circulate year-round, but activate during predictable times of year, likely due to temperature. Putting on a coat is more helpful than wearing a mask. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@Lakshmi_RKG There is! Let us consider that transmission is only one part of the story, and that activation of the virus, as well as susceptibility and treatment are also equal parts. Staying warm like your grandmother told you to is the first step. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@RidleyDM @chrislhayes @NateSilver538 It’s obvious viruses don’t routinely evolve to be less dangerous, but it seems possible that *respiratory* viruses usually do, especially in temperate climates https://t.co/9bVVviKT67

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses https://t.co/PnVlrGxBMW

@ProfessorAkston @tlowdon @EthicalSkeptic Which brings us back to the work of @JuliaLBach8 and @PatrickSSte https://t.co/zpefEBj779

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses https://t.co/al0NToiRf7

@purebtown @macroliter As the vaccines efficacy was measured exactly in the period of waning seasonal severity we may have a seasonal factor attribute to the vaccine efficacy https://t.co/LKfbpt52oa

RT @JuliaLBach8: @Elex_Michaelson We will get a winter surge. But not because we don’t have enough vaccinated. Because it’s winter and th…

@Elex_Michaelson We will get a winter surge. But not because we don’t have enough vaccinated. Because it’s winter and that’s what viruses do during winter. We don’t have a sterilizing vaccine. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@RIHEALTH But it will likely put off cold and flu season a bit longer. Until the weather finally changes. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@JenniferMarguli They did not consider seasonality, and I wish they would have. But I wish the original vaccine trials would have considered seasonality as well! https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@ProfPCDoherty Key word is “winter”. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@JuliusRuechel Very well said. I ask that you consider, however, that there might be another reason why putting on a sweater is a good idea to stave off respiratory infections: https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@dr_gwin @polly7719 @drdenwalker Yes, it’s cited in my paper: https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@ProfPCDoherty Would rather study the efficacy of the vaccines over several active respiratory seasons first. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@JohnHolbein1 Seasonality, visualized. Perhaps we start looking into better explanations for it, hmmmm? https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@ebennett74 @AmerAcadPeds Agree with your points but would love for you to consider an alternate explanation for why flu season occurs during the winter. Crowding happens at other times of the year, too. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@MarcusBeam1 @t4tigerblue @disneyglimpses @EgoAltered02 @nasty_canasta But joking aside, the virus does seem to concentrate in younger patients during the summer. That happened last summer too. It might have to do with the temperature sensitivity of viruses as I wrote with my co-author last May. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@JeromeAdamsMD @_Kodos_ The data we have was gathered over a very short period of time, mostly when respiratory viruses are not seasonally active. Vaccines should be studied when respiratory viruses are seasonally active. That is a huge caveat to the data we have. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@TVConefive @Fiona_M_Russell @RemindMe_OfThis After having massive autumn/early winter waves? I’m not sure what your point is. We address that in our paper. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@shinnickm You don’t need modeling when you have decades of data with other respiratory viruses. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

Or, you look at the same map and see the winter wave starting in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Because this is a seasonal virus. It would be lovely if some journalists would write about that. Here’s a paper to get you started: https://t.co/8mJY5VM469 https://t.co/F27yXyaAUE

@zeynep @eclectictwit @PatrickSSte and I would ❤️ for journalists and scientists to be curious about why outbreak waves come and go, even in places with very low vaccination. We think it is related to temperature sensitivity of viruses, making them active only certain times. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@ThisIsMadness5 And there are clearly environmental stimuli that activate viruses at certain times of the year. Viruses are very good at their jobs! https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@JamesSurowiecki @ianmSC @LorenCharnley @districtai It would be much more helpful for humanity at large if you would write about respiratory viral seasonality, especially how we may be missing the boat on *why* seasonality is a thing. https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

RT @JuliaLBach8: @RossBarkan The narrative is that less vaccinated states (Texas) aren’t supposed to have declines, and more vaccinated sta…

@RossBarkan The narrative is that less vaccinated states (Texas) aren’t supposed to have declines, and more vaccinated states (Vermont) aren’t supposed to have increases. If only a journalist would write something about seasonality! https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@charles_gaba Corrected for climate, obesity and miles to nearest healthcare provider? https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@LiebermanNicole Age-adjustment, yes, or climate? https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

@TheDarkNight090 @BallouxFrancois It’s seasonal https://t.co/LKfbpt52oa

@HeywoodFloyd10 @PatrickSSte & @JuliaLBach8 wrote this https://t.co/LKfbpt52oa there are a number of other , they lead to a conclusion that what seems to be a simply virus is in reality highly nuanced environmentally adaptive organism , part of the problem is how we think about covid complexity

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses https://t.co/83jcia4f5T

@John_Hempton @HighbrowHaze It’s a seasonal virus it’ll drop like a stone before end of October . You look at every outbreak globally so far it peaks then falls sharply https://t.co/LKfbpt52oa

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses https://t.co/YrBEeuDevU

@jaydenSF_SYD @matt_barrie Viruses behave differently close to the tropics https://t.co/LKfbpt52oa

RT @PatrickSSte: A great conversation with @alisonmorrowTV and @JuliaLBach8 about our paper and why we get more colds and flu - and more Co…

How weather affects viral infections like Covid & why scientists aren't studying it - YouTube https://t.co/xmu6Mb0BHG

A great conversation with @alisonmorrowTV and @JuliaLBach8 about our paper and why we get more colds and flu - and more Covid - in winter https://t.co/WumvnhYqb2

I really apperciate Alison Morrow. https://t.co/h2mAmeE4cx

How weather affects viral infections like Covid & why scientists aren't ... https://t.co/EOdaFAC0Qe via @YouTube

@atgraham Taking credit for the sun coming up in the morning: https://t.co/8mJY5VM469

RT @reasonoverfear: Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and…

Temperature dependent viral tropism: understanding viral seasonality and pathogenicity as applied to the avoidance and treatment of endemic viral respiratory illnesses - Shaw Stewart - - Reviews in Medical Virology - Wiley Online Library https://t.co/mKGz55owlS