Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. Optimize enough and you die out Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation https://t.co/uZoN6TTFun
Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation.
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Aug 2020 – Oct 2025Where it's discussed
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X / Twitter115 posts
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YouTube2 videos
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Bluesky1 posts
AI synopsis
What people are saying
Participants in the discussions frequently reference established correlations between population density and fertility rates, with phrases like 'density is robustly correlated with lower fertility' appearing in multiple comments. The tone is predominantly analytical, with one user stating that 'population density has a strong negative correlation with fertility rates,' which suggests a serious consideration of the data. Others express concern over the implications of densification, noting 'mass densification means less kids' and 'we already don't have enough kids,' indicating urgency and concern about future societal outcomes.
Many discussions reflect a general consensus that higher population density is linked to reduced fertility rates, with participants referencing previous studies that support this viewpoint.
Participants demonstrate high interest in the topic, as evidenced by numerous comments engaging with the data and implications of the study.
The engagement level is moderate, with some users discussing methodologies and broader societal implications, though some remarks are more surface-level.
The discussions indicate a strong belief that the findings have significant societal implications, particularly regarding urban planning and family formation.
Abstract in brief
- Fertility rates are declining worldwide over the past 50 years as part of the demographic transition, with a study analyzing data from 174 countries from 1950 to 2019 showing a clear link between population density and fertility.
- The research indicates that higher population density correlates with lower fertility rates, even when accounting for various factors like socioeconomic conditions and female empowerment.
- However, this relationship is influenced by environmental factors, such as living conditions and cultural aspects like religiosity and social norms, suggesting these factors can moderate the impact of population density on fertility rates.
Top posts
Most liked on X and Bluesky@clairlemon 'Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation' https://t.co/nlQ2P00ADr
2/ What is densification's END goal? Bio-Surveilance? Digital Tracking? Global Food Banks? Personal Carbon Tracking? Population Reduction? Indeed. "Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation." https://t.co/gEnAcdKprr
@DVATW When a population starts to reach high density birth rates fall. There are too many humans on the planet. https://t.co/IoAK3Ho8T8
"Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation" https://t.co/IG5qtawAL7 https://t.co/OLjAd53fV6
@robinhanson @MaxCRoser It's a question of the effect of density on reproduction, which is a common feature of animal populations. Seems to hold in humans, too, which suggests that there's a feedback loop that has nothing to do with tech: https://t.co/BVctvVEeRz
All mentions
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Impact of Population Density on Global Fertility Declines
This video explores the decline in human fertility rates over the past 50 years, supported by research from 174 countries. It highlights how increasing population density correlates with lower fertility rates…
@jonatanpallesen @Jerinos1 No, dude. Tons of studies show that increasing population density decreases fertility rates across species. This is instinctual population control stuff. The fact that rich people tend to get big apartments and buck the trend doesn’t change that fact. https://t.co/DeqWbZOgW4
https://t.co/s6lHnpAReq https://t.co/dWJhbO8gvD https://t.co/yV7MWJTFWj https://t.co/6VfuwIzEWj
@StefanFSchubert @jburnmurdoch I respect the general point (you have no obligation to include a control). In my specific case, it's not a pet theory at all... tight relationships between density and lower birth rates are well established: https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK As is density & politics:
https://t.co/DIF16PN9nm [via https://t.co/xPYP3BMVoa] https://t.co/8ikGHXrJ2R
RT @AvidCommentator: @clairlemon 'Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation'…
RT @AvidCommentator: @clairlemon 'Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation'…
Densification - the solution nobody wants to the problem we don’t need to have. https://t.co/Ue2Qr6VfjX
@clairlemon https://t.co/ODQ5BKXgwr
RT @AvidCommentator: @clairlemon 'Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation'…
RT @AvidCommentator: @clairlemon 'Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation'…
@clairlemon 'Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation' https://t.co/nlQ2P00ADr
Average income and density tend to be positively correlated, so I'd have imagined this explains a lot of it. But, there seem to be research that suggest a relationship between the two even when correcting for other factors: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/
@MacLesggy @ClementGaill https://t.co/zhFdK2ZBKI We find a causal relationship from population density to fertility such that a rise in density from 10 to 1000 inhabitants per square kilometer corresponds to a decrease in fertility of about 0.7 children. https://t.co/FMrbZZygxW
@YuriyMatveyev @pavlov_vitali Да ладно! Это ОДИН (не единственный) из факторов, отрицательно влияющих на рождаемость. Поэтому Юж.Корею с нами сравнивать смешно. Вот исследование по 174 странам "Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation" https://t.co/f0Tn9OtqAb
@DrCameronMurray Population Density, Fertility and Demographic Convergence in Developing Countries - https://t.co/9xXyKaMooG PDF) Population Density Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility - https://t.co/hPoNLqdjh1 Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A
@DrCameronMurray @signifer111 Accessible link https://t.co/NXSYJoNXo4
@HugoVale_ @AutismCapital Population density may be a contributing factor. Science is still trying to work this one out. Hey, we still can’t figure out why more boys than girls are born following major wars. It statistically doesn’t make sense. https://t.co/RYrHwBAijz
@ShabbatSlalom @benmyers29 Densifying demonstrably makes it worse, both within countries and between countries. Taking a tire fire (our existing fertility rates of 1.3) and pouring gasoline on it is a terrible idea. https://t.co/j19bQTG9IL.
@benmyers29 @ShabbatSlalom Density is robustly correlated with lower fertility, both within country and between countries. https://t.co/j19bQTG9IL. Signing up for mass densification destroys our long term social safety ned.
@jessald To me, doesn't pass occam's razor. There's a pretty recognizable correlation between population density and fertility. https://t.co/LZiU1H2TYE We see the same thing in non-human animals as well. Do you think the rats secretly know the singularity is coming? :P
RT @cravecreative: @liberal_party HOW TO KILL A COUNTRY Mass immigration = densification & population reduction:"cramped quarters unsuited…
RT @cravecreative: @liberal_party HOW TO KILL A COUNTRY Mass immigration = densification & population reduction:"cramped quarters unsuited…
RT @cravecreative: @liberal_party HOW TO KILL A COUNTRY Mass immigration = densification & population reduction:"cramped quarters unsuited…
@liberal_party HOW TO KILL A COUNTRY Mass immigration = densification & population reduction:"cramped quarters unsuited for raising children" https://t.co/M0AliX7Q1k Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation. https://t.co/gEnAcdJRBT
@HollowSolace @NotPotBol Because it does. https://t.co/jjxu0o5GKD
@RokoMijic I don't know precisely but it's a very well supported finding (e.g. https://t.co/8LCNjyHD4g & many others) My best guess is that ambitious drives to subdue the earth's resources are coupled with the drive to reproduce (Genesis 1:28) & as exploitation maxes out fertility falls.1/2
@GCarty80 @spaceliberal @yhdistyminen Family formation than high-density urban cores. The data absolutely bears that out, in terms of multiple factors: - actual birth rates ( see here: https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK ) - outdoor play for kids - local greenspace availability - happiness https://t.co/vfqhSzYIEw
@cyb3rraga @RM_Transit @carastern @TroyMclure22 Majority of Toronto kids in apartments... that is indeed recent.. I believe that only became the case in 2023. 1/1. Density goes with fewer kids: studied across 174 countries, robustly confirmed, both within countries and between countries. https://t.co/LP6b1h8pDi 2/2.
@RM_Transit @carastern @TroyMclure22 Here's a study of 174 countries that robustly concluded both within country and between country that density was related to lower fertility rates: https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@TribTowerViews @clunky343_ @aarmlovi You have access to Google or another ? https://t.co/5GhR5O1FJ1
@cosmonautics_ @TheAgenda @C_AnthonyMilton 1/x: 174 nation study. Densification robustly correlated with lower fertility. Both between countries, and within countries. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@kaseyklimes https://t.co/mwxzkajKGN
@kitten_beloved I will bet that yes, higher density depresses fertility: 1. https://t.co/0JGaTaxKvq 2. https://t.co/BLfPtbGzAc
@StatisticUrban Densification is robustly correlated with lower fertility. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@mrKPbIS @Oleshkevich @vlsurin Демографический переход - это уменьшение положительного влияние на рождаемость факторов как убийства, болезней, религиозность и жестких социальных норм. Когда эти факторы сильно слабеют, важнее всего становится плотность населения https://t.co/COzPbzGzRv. https://t.co/kvYmGgjfFR
RT @cravecreative: 2/ What is densification's END goal? Bio-Surveilance? Digital Tracking? Global Food Banks? Personal Carbon Tracking? Po…
RT @cravecreative: 2/ What is densification's END goal? Bio-Surveilance? Digital Tracking? Global Food Banks? Personal Carbon Tracking? Po…
RT @cravecreative: 2/ What is densification's END goal? Bio-Surveilance? Digital Tracking? Global Food Banks? Personal Carbon Tracking? Po…
2/ What is densification's END goal? Bio-Surveilance? Digital Tracking? Global Food Banks? Personal Carbon Tracking? Population Reduction? Indeed. "Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation." https://t.co/gEnAcdKprr
@ray_hoang30 @michael_wiebe Yes, I'm sure. Socioeconomic variables controlled for. Link to the study: https://t.co/LP6b1h8pDi https://t.co/RYmI1kScvj
@whitherdrift @BradMBradford Which is its own race to the bottom. Our kids spend more time on screens, which is increasingly being tied to deteriorating mental health. Nevermind that we're well short of replacement level birth rates, thus making our societies unsustainable https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@ArmandDoma I didn’t make a causal argument. But I do think environment can influence choices. We know that as density increases, birth rates fall. https://t.co/hGiUAv6bk1.
@NZ_Reece @cristianyimby @Yimbymanatee @brendanwhitsitt @ineastyork Birth rates are robustly tied to density. High density means insufficient birth rates. 174 country study, compared both within countries and between countries. Reduced setbacks means higher density means lower birth rates. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK Call me a ghoul all you want
"Artan nüfus yoğunlukları, zaman içinde azalan doğurganlık oranlarını öngörüyor: 174 ülkelik bir araştırma" Rotella ve ark ., 2021 https://t.co/tKFNvu8WxA
@Samfr Think this is a bit disingenuous. Fertility rates are linked to population density (which rises with immigration). South Korea has high population density because of high fertility rates (>4) in the 50s, 60s & 70s. It’s a special case. https://t.co/oGcz8v41Sw
@Samfr @SAshworthHayes What's most relevant is probably the link with population density. https://t.co/oGcz8v41Sw
RT @MZAF25: @pinkskywriting @fuelgrannie The data says otherwise: https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@pinkskywriting @fuelgrannie The data says otherwise: https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
RT @Helot_: @MoreBirths @bryan_caplan There is a strong negative correlation between population density and apartments and fertility rates.…
@SolarxPvP @MoreBirths @bryan_caplan It is not irrelevant. Population density itself is strongly correlated with fertility. This is a 171 country study. It's not that we are doing it wrong, it is bad in and of itself. https://t.co/ycx2JblVxk
@MoreBirths @bryan_caplan There is a strong negative correlation between population density and apartments and fertility rates. We should be looking to spread people out, not densify. https://t.co/ycx2JblVxk https://t.co/P2GdW1qGXK
@MoreBirths @bryan_caplan https://t.co/Y02hbTkoa0 The paper "Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation" finds that changes in population density account for 31% of the variance in fertility. https://t.co/gbPoZJGoGP
@globeandmail A quick thread
@KishoneRoy @globeandmail One of the core proposals of the housing plan is "fourplexes by right", and densification along corridors. Densification is robustly correlated with lower fertility (174 nation study; considers both within and between countries): https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@MoreHomesHRM This is not at all nonsense. Density is robustly correlated w lower fertility, according to a 174-nation study. It controls for a variety of variables, and considers both within- and between-countries. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
It would be terrible actually. Population density has a strong negative correlation with fertility rates. Fertility rates that are already in free fall around the world, especially the developed world. https://t.co/ycx2JbmtmS https://t.co/SlM8SCJofR
@ColinDMello Canada already doesn't nearly have enough kids. Densification is robustly correlated with fewer kids. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK Opposition to 4plexes everywhere is good.
@SyntheticusAlt Mass densification means less kids. We already don't have enough kids. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@krubner @lymanstoneky @PTBwrites Density is robustly correlated with lower fertility. So completely makes sense that upzoning leads to reduced fertility. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@cyb3rraga @EricDLombardi Back up for my 2nd point: - robust correlation between higher density and lower fertility across 174 nations: https://t.co/j19bQTG9IL. - and on my second sub point: - AUS study found that over 50% of play happens at home. Way easier to play if your home has a yard
@Zack12231298 Density is robustly correlated with lower fertility rate. 174 nation study. Controlled for a variety of variables. My goal is quality of life. Density/urbanism has some elements that improve quality of life, and other elements that reduce it. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@SyntheticusAlt Density means: 1) lower birth rates (which means you need to jack immigration back up) https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK 2) reduced happiness https://t.co/qKG8729qLm. 3) less local greenspace 4) higher inequality 5) higher land prices 6) less likely kids have yards to play in
@TheSpiralPro @TheJasonJBailey @SyntheticusAlt 174 nation study. Highly robust finding. Controlled for numerous factors. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
@beheshtialex And, regardless of what your friends did... "increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of socioeconomic, socioecological, geographic, population-based, and female empowerment variables." https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
We need more children. Ultra-density has a negative effect on the creation of families. This isn’t a side-effect of yimbyism that should be ignored. https://t.co/NuQgMyHQVd
@gabedsouza13 @pothen @GraChurch @MoreNeighbours 174 nation study. Controls for female empowerment variables. https://t.co/j19bQTG9IL.
@Rainmaker1973 Increased population density reduces fertility. https://t.co/xSXyxdxFB7
@mldunham @MikePMoffatt Basically every major Asian country is far below replacement level birth rates. They're on the brink of collapse. Density is correlated with lower birth rates. Consistent finding across 174 nations. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK
V nejméně westernizovaných státech je pozitivní korelace mezi hustotou zalidnění a porodností. Nejspíše protože jejich města nejsou liberálním centrem? https://t.co/LDa3evjXim https://t.co/EzNzzrDMX7
@Kanthan2030 We have too many people. "We find a robust association between density and fertility over time. That is, increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of variables." https://t.co/qwxQ4SbuTz
It was just brought to my attention that many folks are unaware of the relationship of population density and birth rates. Demographics: "increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates" https://t.co/qwxQ4SbuTz
@TheHankyoreh It was just brought to my attention that many folks are unaware of the relationship of population density and birth rates. Demographics: "increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates" https://t.co/qwxQ4SbuTz
@RyanMatCampbell @MayorOliviaChow Birth rates. They decline with density. 174 nation study. We already don't have enough kids. https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK 3/x
RT @AndOily: @OurNewHomecoach Interesting research on the effect of density on fertility https://t.co/KdkyMmDrXx.
@OurNewHomecoach Interesting research on the effect of density on fertility https://t.co/KdkyMmDrXx.
Of course you can do this *and* permit densification in inner cities, but families will always choose leafy suburbs. There's also good evidence people are more likely to want to start a family when they're in a low density environment. https://t.co/tWbSsMAJwm
@beheshtialex "We find a robust association between density and fertility over time, both within- and between-countries. That is, increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of ... variables" https://t.co/j19bQTG9IL.
@MikePMoffatt 7) Less kids generally... High density predicts fewer kids (bigger mortgages/rental pmts means less $ to feed more mouths). Many countries are facing severe issues w below replacement level birth rates: social services collapse w declining tax base https://t.co/LP6b1h7RNK 8/8
@robinhanson @MaxCRoser It's a question of the effect of density on reproduction, which is a common feature of animal populations. Seems to hold in humans, too, which suggests that there's a feedback loop that has nothing to do with tech: https://t.co/BVctvVEeRz
@JoeGibb69377091 @ScottAdamsSays I think you're on to something: https://t.co/Cqx5wGFxCp
@JasnTru {Already has astronaut} https://t.co/MZggt8e3a7
@DVATW When a population starts to reach high density birth rates fall. There are too many humans on the planet. https://t.co/IoAK3Ho8T8
This is my hypothesis on decreased in fertility is due to population density https://t.co/go33H0baJ0
RT @j2bryson: Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation @amrotella https://t…
RT @j2bryson: Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation @amrotella https://t…
RT @j2bryson: Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation @amrotella https://t…
Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation @amrotella https://t.co/nYt6f1vdLg Populations tend to reduce as housing density increases, IF infant mortality stays low 1/2 #ehbea2022 #demographicTransition
Increasing #population #densities predict decreasing #fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation. https://t.co/faD0NNSC8D
Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation
Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation. via /r/science https://t.co/RIJ93BKVLk
Kingston University: Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time : a 174-nation in - https://t.co/M6VeDpc57i
Increasing Population Densities Predict Decreasing Fertility Rates over Time: A 174-nation Investigation https://t.co/AJbeNbgnha
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
RT @KirkegaardEmil: Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. O…
Cities bad. Population density seems to increase work productivity by nonlinear scaling BUT at the cost of fertility. Optimize enough and you die out Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation https://t.co/uZoN6TTFun
RT @PsychoSchmitt: "Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation" https://t.co/…
RT @PsychoSchmitt: "Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation" https://t.co/…
"Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation" https://t.co/IG5qtawAL7 https://t.co/OLjAd53fV6
Increasing Population Densities Predict Decreasing Fertility Rates over Time: A 174-nation Investigation https://t.co/APhEC1Zcrz
Increasing population densities predict decreasing fertility rates over time: A 174-nation investigation https://t.co/Pv5xqbaSa8