Nat Commun June 2023 PMID 37280196

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario.

Yeon-Hee Kim, Seung-Ki Min, Nathan P Gillett, Dirk Notz, Elizaveta Malinina

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Mentions

403
Peak: 29 in Jun 2023
across 7 sources since Jun 2023

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192,797
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Total likes

31

Video views

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Jun 2023 – Aug 2025

Where it's discussed

  • News309 articles
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AI synopsis

What people are saying

The group emphasizes the urgency and significance of the findings, with phrases like 'reaching an important tipping point' and 'quicker than expected,' which convey both concern and the potential for profound environmental impacts. The tone is serious and motivated, and words like 'tremendous consequences' and references to model limitations and observational data highlight high engagement and perceived impact of the study on climate discourse.

AgreementStrong agreement

Most posts strongly support the significance of the study, emphasizing the early occurrence of an ice-free Arctic even under low emissions, indicating broad consensus on the findings.

InterestHigh interest

The discussions show high curiosity, with many posts referencing specific projections, model limitations, and implications, reflecting active engagement and concern.

EngagementHigh engagement

Many posts analyze the study's methodology, highlight model discrepancies, and discuss future climate impacts, demonstrating deep intellectual engagement.

ImpactHigh impact

The discussions suggest that this research could be a tipping point, with many perceiving it as having substantial consequences for climate policy and environmental awareness.

Abstract in brief

  • The IPCC sixth assessment report suggests that the Arctic is likely to be ice-free in September by midcentury under medium and high emission scenarios, but not under low emissions, based on CMIP6 climate models.
  • An analysis shows that greenhouse gases have a strong influence on Arctic sea ice across all months, but current models tend to underestimate this effect.
  • By adjusting model responses to better match observed data, the study projects an ice-free Arctic in September across all emission scenarios, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future.]

Top posts

Most liked on X and Bluesky
Philippe Aftimos, MD 
@aftimosp · X

☹️ Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/cBjlO75GrW

Jun 8, 2023 · 5 likes · 6,094 followers View post →
Oliver ✊
@tynewrc · X

"... even the lowest IPCC emissions scenario will bring us to an ice free Arctic by 2030" 'Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario' https://t.co/WTl9cvjge0

Sep 21, 2024 · 4 likes · 3 shares · 20,620 followers View post →
Indonesisches Bergwiesel
@IBergwiesel · X

Kim, YH., Min, SK., Gillett, N.P. et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/MW9VfQxtA8

Jun 6, 2023 · 4 likes · 2 shares · 719 followers View post →
Brad Larkens
@CanadaRedPills · X

@CTVNews This study did not test with models in a "low emission" scenario. "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario" "...observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test...]

Jun 6, 2023 · 3 likes · 1,830 followers View post →
有機農業ニュースクリップ
@OrganicNewsClip · X

人間活動の影響が寄与するの一方、エーロゾルと自然要因(太陽活動や火山活動など)の寄与がはるかに小さいことも判明したという。 https://t.co/4hluiKU7RK

Jun 8, 2023 · 2 likes · 2 shares · 32,244 followers View post →
Andy_Weeble_Weaver
@AndrewW66619812 · X

The study in "Nature Communications" the above "Guardian" article is based upon, & links to: “Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario” 2/2 https://t.co/EHT1vB5eMP

Jun 6, 2023 · 2 likes · 2 shares · 4,317 followers View post →

All mentions

Rafe
@28Raloz · X

@velardedaoiz2 Extensión ≠ grosor. Puede pausarse la extensión y seguir cayendo el volumen (extensión×grosor) por adelgazamiento https://t.co/CAXRUtlSOj https://t.co/PMKV5Ey1gQ https://t.co/Wd5K1TP5JM

Aug 21, 2025 · 776 followers View post →
umsonst.bsky.social
@umsonst.bsky.social · Bluesky

Slowly model results are closing in on an Arctic sea ice free September: "The stronger SIA declines have advanced first ice-free years to around the 2030s–50s in all SSP scenarios." Sadly, the spread is way too large as it could happen as early as 2027-2030... #CIMP5 #CIMP6 #CMIP7 #climate

Jan 26, 2025 · 1 share View post →
umsonst.bsky.social
@umsonst.bsky.social · Bluesky

And here another study - this time as early as 2030: "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario"; www.nature.com/articles/s41... Important the more recent the studies the more earlier the first ice free year is projected... #CMIP7

Jan 20, 2025 · 1 like View post →
Infopoint #Klimawandel #Artensterben
@infopointa.bsky.social · Bluesky

The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030 Heuzé & Jahn. 2024 www.nature.com/articles/s41... Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario Kim et al. 2023 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Dec 4, 2024 · 1 like · 1 share View post →
Hive-mind activist-misanthrope collectivist ☭
@Austmadr · X

RT @tynewrc: "... even the lowest IPCC emissions scenario will bring us to an ice free Arctic by 2030" 'Observationally-constrained projec…

Sep 21, 2024 · 3 shares · 5,525 followers View post →
Robert Stewart
@RobertS19767765 · X

RT @tynewrc: "... even the lowest IPCC emissions scenario will bring us to an ice free Arctic by 2030" 'Observationally-constrained projec…

Sep 21, 2024 · 3 shares · 753 followers View post →
Kris Krowe
@KKrowe9 · X

RT @tynewrc: "... even the lowest IPCC emissions scenario will bring us to an ice free Arctic by 2030" 'Observationally-constrained projec…

Sep 21, 2024 · 3 shares · 6,817 followers View post →
Oliver ✊
@tynewrc · X

"... even the lowest IPCC emissions scenario will bring us to an ice free Arctic by 2030" 'Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario' https://t.co/WTl9cvjge0

Sep 21, 2024 · 4 likes · 3 shares · 20,620 followers View post →
Missed Information
@MizdInformation · X

@JamesMelville Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/ecs8ApM9qk

Sep 10, 2024 · 405 followers View post →
Glenn Shadrake
@GShadrake · X

@NdabaningiMoyo @Benjibon @ChrisMartzWX Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario, Yeon-Hee Kim et al. https://t.co/8EktqoeCr1

May 3, 2024 · 1,009 followers View post →
nshrknl_s
@nshrknl · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/FOQEgcbuYo

Nov 23, 2023 · 128 followers View post →
LET
@LaboratorioETN · X

Proyecciones demuestran como el hielo marino del Ártico va a reducirse, principalmente como consecuencia de los gases de efecto invernadero Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/1tb3prTRTF

Jul 28, 2023 · 1 like · 309 followers View post →
Josué García Veiga
@josue_veiga · X

RT @LaboratorioETN: Proyecciones a futuro demuestran como el hielo marino del Ártico va a reducirse, principalmente como una consecuencia d…

Jul 20, 2023 · 1 share · 123 followers View post →
LET
@LaboratorioETN · X

Proyecciones a futuro demuestran como el hielo marino del Ártico va a reducirse, principalmente como una consecuencia de los gases de efecto invernadero Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/1tb3prTRTF

Jul 20, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 309 followers View post →
John West
@JohnWest_JAWS · X

RT @AndrewW66619812: The study in "Nature Communications" the above "Guardian" article is based upon, & links to: “Observationally-constra…

Jun 19, 2023 · 2 shares · 25,677 followers View post →
Skynet
@Skynet_IA_2100 · X

2. Kim, YH., Min, SK., Gillett, N.P. et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario. Nat Commun 14, 3139 (2023). https://t.co/p5rw7xYg5J

Jun 13, 2023 · 278 followers View post →
Ordo Fraterna Fibonacci
@OrdoFibonacci · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/BSbYBJbnqW

Jun 11, 2023 · 2,569 followers View post →
Art of Roof
@ArtOfCoolRoof · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/o1Ph6ZQDbx

Jun 10, 2023 · 5 followers View post →
Christian BERNARD
@christian300658 · X

Le premier mois de septembre sans glace de mer en Arctique pourrait survenir dès les années 2030, selon les auteur·rices de cette étude. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario. https://t.co/8jKA92HR1O

Jun 10, 2023 · 1,985 followers View post →
Pillar VC
@pillar_vc · X

2. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/fctFYHOZCi

Jun 9, 2023 · 7,594 followers View post →
Philippe Aftimos, MD 
@aftimosp · X

☹️ Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/cBjlO75GrW

Jun 8, 2023 · 5 likes · 6,094 followers View post →
Caribbean disaster
@BagalueSunab · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario Yeon-Hee Kim,  Seung-Ki Min,  Nathan P. Gillett,  Dirk Notz &  Elizaveta Malinina  https://t.co/lvL4lwupSo

Jun 8, 2023 · 1 like · 4,172 followers View post →
alien
@teyllan · X

RT @OrganicNewsClip: 人間活動の影響が寄与するの一方、エーロゾルと自然要因(太陽活動や火山活動など)の寄与がはるかに小さいことも判明したという。 https://t.co/4hluiKU7RK

Jun 8, 2023 · 2 shares · 1,250 followers View post →
有機農業ニュースクリップ
@OrganicNewsClip · X

人間活動の影響が寄与するの一方、エーロゾルと自然要因(太陽活動や火山活動など)の寄与がはるかに小さいことも判明したという。 https://t.co/4hluiKU7RK

Jun 8, 2023 · 2 likes · 2 shares · 32,244 followers View post →
Ordo Fraterna Fibonacci
@OrdoFibonacci · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/BSbYBJbnqW

Jun 8, 2023 · 2,569 followers View post →
ItsTheAtmosphere @Padruig@universeodon.com
@ItsTheAtmospher · X

@7udfjirfji9re91 @Robert76907841 @JM990275 @ejwwest @CColose Kim etal (2023) DOI 10.1038/s41467-023-38511-8 its a good article but as Axios is a media concern they contracted some of the relevant content which are the constraints of the models however their CMIP6 raw data is available https://t.co/LWyWBRfAdu

Jun 7, 2023 · 994 followers View post →
Thomas Arnold
@ThomasArnold19 · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications We are reaching an important tipping point https://t.co/RqU5EcJ8UG

Jun 7, 2023 · 941 followers View post →
0gust1
@0gust1 · X

No more pack-ice in Arctic by 2030. It is quicker than expected. It will happen whatever we do. It will have tremendous consequences. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/IHPUesdX9T

Jun 7, 2023 · 419 followers View post →
Björn Buchweitz
@buchweitzb · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/Lbldm213gW

Jun 7, 2023 · 107 followers View post →
New - Cogli l’attimo
@quemper_annick · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/fi8AOAbib6

Jun 7, 2023 · 595 followers View post →
Frederik Schenk
@FrederikSchenk · X

Climate models produce too much #Arctic #seaice relative to observed & reconstructed past warm periods. Hence, future sea-ice will be gone earlier: Kim et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/Fz0wk6JQPw

Jun 7, 2023 · 2 likes · 504 followers View post →
Susan Chubb#FBPA⚫️#RejoinEU
@SusanChubb1 · X

RT @AndrewW66619812: The study in "Nature Communications" the above "Guardian" article is based upon, & links to: “Observationally-constra…

Jun 7, 2023 · 2 shares · 10,233 followers View post →
窪田 薫
@kaoryu · X

"Results indicate that the first sea ice-free September will occur as early as the 2030s–2050s irrespective of emission scenarios." Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario Ncom https://t.co/xEGfqGSvdT

Jun 6, 2023 · 1,566 followers View post →
Jose M Molina
@jose_molina_JHU · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/9F7uQ797lS

Jun 6, 2023 · 106 followers View post →
Prof Nick Cowern
@NickCowern · X

@graeme_cobb This was a Guardian article about a scientific paper in the journal Nature, which says exactly the same in more technical language. Nothing to do with MSM, which - incidentally - generally understates climate issues. https://t.co/OPwaNVZ6Jo

Jun 6, 2023 · 1 like · 13,893 followers View post →
Ken Gusler
@kgusler · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario - https://t.co/lPzi6Ue4La

Jun 6, 2023 · 20,038 followers View post →
BONUS
@TheDisproof · X

RT @IBergwiesel: Kim, YH., Min, SK., Gillett, N.P. et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low e…

Jun 6, 2023 · 2 shares · 6,978 followers View post →
Indonesisches Bergwiesel
@IBergwiesel · X

Kim, YH., Min, SK., Gillett, N.P. et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario https://t.co/MW9VfQxtA8

Jun 6, 2023 · 4 likes · 2 shares · 719 followers View post →
Brad Larkens
@CanadaRedPills · X

@CTVNews This study did not test with models in a "low emission" scenario. "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario" "...observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test...]

Jun 6, 2023 · 3 likes · 1,830 followers View post →
Harm Saeijs
@HarmSaeijs · X

@IEA @IPCC_CH The research paper described by @dpcarrington, published today: Kim, YH., Min, SK., Gillett, N.P. et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario. Nat Commun 14, 3139 (2023). https://t.co/54dlLO4x5x https://t.co/BLEixezFBJ https://t.co/xPqklq313z

Jun 6, 2023 · 2,178 followers View post →
Harm Saeijs
@HarmSaeijs · X

@IPCC_CH The research paper described by @dpcarrington, published today; Kim, YH., Min, SK., Gillett, N.P. et al. Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario. Nat Commun 14, 3139 (2023). https://t.co/54dlLO4x5x https://t.co/BLEixezFBJ https://t.co/6YzH4JjqTs

Jun 6, 2023 · 1 like · 2,178 followers View post →
Andy_Weeble_Weaver
@AndrewW66619812 · X

The study in "Nature Communications" the above "Guardian" article is based upon, & links to: “Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario” 2/2 https://t.co/EHT1vB5eMP

Jun 6, 2023 · 2 likes · 2 shares · 4,317 followers View post →
ken crichlow
@ken_crichlow · X

Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario | Nature Communications https://t.co/iv5gdN1tmt

Jun 6, 2023 · 2 likes · 3,912 followers View post →