April 2015 PMID 25159086

Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction.

Jurriaan M De Vos, Lucas N Joppa, John L Gittleman, Patrick R Stephens, Stuart L Pimm

Mentions

174
Peak: 6 in May 2019
across 6 sources since Apr 2015

Extended reach

5,739,184
potential audience

Total likes

56,047

Video views

5,602,259

Mentions per month

Apr 2015 – Oct 2024

Where it's discussed

  • News96 articles
  • X / Twitter35 posts
  • Blogs26 articles
  • Facebook12 posts
  • YouTube3 videos
  • Bluesky2 posts

AI synopsis

What people are saying

Throughout these social discussions, users frequently reference the magnitude of extinction rate increases, such as claims that current rates are 1,000 times higher than natural levels, and highlight the importance of research in understanding this crisis. The tone is urgent and evidence-focused, reflecting deep concern about biodiversity loss, which aligns with the high scores across all dimensions.

AgreementStrong agreement

Most social discussions strongly support the notion that current extinction rates are significantly higher than natural background rates, with many referencing studies and consensus among scientists, which shows a high level of agreement with the publicat

InterestHigh interest

Posts express intense curiosity and concern, using words like 'mass extinction,' 'urgent,' and 'crisis,' indicating high interest in understanding the impact of human activity on biodiversity.

EngagementHigh engagement

Many discussions cite specific data, studies, and call for further research or action, demonstrating deep engagement with the scientific content and its implications.

ImpactHigh impact

The collective tone suggests an awareness that the publication emphasizes a pivotal issue—namely, the accelerated extinction crisis caused by human activity—with potential influence on public and scientific discourse.

Abstract in brief

  • Estimating the natural (background) rate of species extinction is challenging because data is limited and methods vary, but research suggests it might be lower than traditionally assumed, around 0.01 to 0.02 extinctions per million species per year.
  • Fossil records and molecular phylogenies provide different types of evidence, with fossil data offering broad but coarse estimates, and phylogenies offering more detailed but debated estimates of extinction and speciation rates.
  • Overall, the study indicates there is no strong evidence for a significant decline in species diversity before human impact, and recent extinction rates are likely below or similar to natural background rates, meaning human activities have greatly elevated extinction rates above natural levels.]

Top posts

Most liked on X and Bluesky
Víctor D.
@BiodiverSiTal · X

No estamos teniendo en cuenta CUÁNTO está aportando el ser humano a esto. Respecto a la tasa NORMAL de extinciones, la hemos aumentado hasta 1.000 VECES y se estima un aumento de hasta 10.000 https://t.co/eZCFnBxjMR

Nov 28, 2021 · 10 likes · 1 share · 4,638 followers View post →
Anthony Ricciardi
@EcoInvasions · X

@KaiChanUBC And 10-100x the background rate is likely a conservative estimate of the pace of modern extinctions. 1000x is probably more accurate (https://t.co/dn3i8itZOZ). That's how much fast freshwater fishes are disappearing from N. America, for example. It is certainly unusually large.

May 11, 2019 · 2 likes · 4,572 followers View post →
Chuck Malarkey
@raudzini · X

@BjornLomborg So no problem with the increase in the extinction rate which is 1,000 higher than pre-human times and doubling every 10 years? https://t.co/AXhNXR9jcA

Jan 20, 2023 · 2 likes · 2 shares · 17 followers View post →
Howling For Wolves
@Howling4Wolves · X

@YellowstoneDJ @endangered @HuffPostImpact Many peer-reviewed studies, and the consensus amongst scientists, show the current rate of extinction to be hunreds of time the regular background rate and that we are in fact in the midst of a 6th mass extinction. Here is a study that explains more. https://t.co/5e7FVcE3DF

Mar 21, 2019 · 1 like · 14,352 followers View post →
huh?
@Thando______ · X

@Sphe12_ Here a nice vid that explains it 5 min. https://t.co/xWNFHZn57Q

Feb 8, 2023 · 1 like · 4,482 followers View post →
Sir Autumn Mandrake
@AutumnMandrake · X

@Mat_Defender @EarthChild_Twan @TonyClimate In order to understand what human-caused extinction is doing to identified biodiversity we need to understand the rates of loss in the identified taxi, vs the rate of speciation in the same taxa. Papers such as this: https://t.co/j1tm87NRkU do that. (4/n)

Jan 7, 2023 · 1 like · 1,574 followers View post →

All mentions

Top Six Major Extinction Events in Earth's History

Earth has experienced significant extinction events that dramatically changed its biodiversity. This video explores the most notable mass extinctions, their causes, and their impacts on the evolution of life on our…

AsapSCIENCE · Apr 22, 2015 5,566,401 views
Narkophobia
@Narkophobia · X

@Rotavator_X @ClemenxC_ @KevRenaud04 @Cobra_FX_ Pourquoi tu nous abreuve pas de données et d'études si ce que tu clames est la vérité. Parce qu'en attendant, dans la réalité, en Sciences, bah ça montre l'inverse

Sep 4, 2024 · 106 followers View post →
Boje Müller
@MullerBoje · X

@Till50061735 Das ist leider eine gefühlte Wahrheit. Die Aussterberate ist momentan ca. 1000x höher als vor uns. https://t.co/znixonqvwK

Oct 10, 2023 · 8,046 followers View post →
Sir Autumn Mandrake
@AutumnMandrake · X

@Roger0Anderson @MatthewWielicki The rate of extinction is 100-1,000 times that of the background rate sans human impact: https://t.co/R9tUdxdiLV In the future it will be even greater: https://t.co/j1tm87NRkU We’re already destroying the planet by “manipulat[ing] th[at] cycle…” (1/2)

Jun 19, 2023 · 1,574 followers View post →
huh?
@Thando______ · X

@Sphe12_ Here a nice vid that explains it 5 min. https://t.co/xWNFHZn57Q

Feb 8, 2023 · 1 like · 4,482 followers View post →
Lori
@Lori18367434 · X

RT @raudzini: @BjornLomborg So no problem with the increase in the extinction rate which is 1,000 higher than pre-human times and doubling…

Jan 21, 2023 · 2 shares · 4,086 followers View post →
Tony vizzo
@tony_vizzo · X

RT @raudzini: @BjornLomborg So no problem with the increase in the extinction rate which is 1,000 higher than pre-human times and doubling…

Jan 20, 2023 · 2 shares · 17 followers View post →
Chuck Malarkey
@raudzini · X

@BjornLomborg So no problem with the increase in the extinction rate which is 1,000 higher than pre-human times and doubling every 10 years? https://t.co/AXhNXR9jcA

Jan 20, 2023 · 2 likes · 2 shares · 17 followers View post →
Sir Autumn Mandrake
@AutumnMandrake · X

@Mat_Defender @EarthChild_Twan @TonyClimate In order to understand what human-caused extinction is doing to identified biodiversity we need to understand the rates of loss in the identified taxi, vs the rate of speciation in the same taxa. Papers such as this: https://t.co/j1tm87NRkU do that. (4/n)

Jan 7, 2023 · 1 like · 1,574 followers View post →
Vitamix Stan
@jldstuff393 · X

@elonmusk @ShellenbergerMD @ScottPelley @PaulREhrlich Omg we absolutely are living in a mass extinction with extinction rates 10-100x higher than background. Biodiversity loss is maybe as urgent as carbon emissions, and far more tragic. https://t.co/EPxffpYrnY https://t.co/pFlGYvNZY9 https://t.co/P7JqCKQ55t https://t.co/Z68KbGCJyC

Jan 2, 2023 · 26 followers View post →
Agathonia Media
@AgathoniaMedia · X

Estimating the #normal background rate of species extinction https://t.co/QUscokAVFV

Dec 8, 2022 · 1 like · 1,254 followers View post →
Erik Bloemen ☮️
@floribundum · X

@upperholme "Current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher." https://t.co/fjFMnKekCy

Aug 9, 2022 · 1 like · 729 followers View post →
cm
@cmcalgary · X

@KnifeNerd https://t.co/1lIGYQ2mvv

Jul 28, 2022 · 56,202 followers View post →
Víctor D.
@BiodiverSiTal · X

No estamos teniendo en cuenta CUÁNTO está aportando el ser humano a esto. Respecto a la tasa NORMAL de extinciones, la hemos aumentado hasta 1.000 VECES y se estima un aumento de hasta 10.000 https://t.co/eZCFnBxjMR

Nov 28, 2021 · 10 likes · 1 share · 4,638 followers View post →
Blue River
@BlueRiv88891964 · X

Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction https://t.co/la6nlMdzh4

Oct 1, 2021 · 2,055 followers View post →
(slow) Bubble
@selithry · X

อันนี้เป็น prediction ที่เค้าทำนายไว้ 3 ข้อ และก็มีคลิปที่เราได้เรียนเพิ่มเติมอธิบายไว้ดีมากๆ https://t.co/kGQgZR8JE0 https://t.co/8ytyckuSDs

Aug 1, 2021 · 555 followers View post →
Culture_Commune ⏚
@CommuneCulture · X

RT @JMBonzom: Current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be…

Jun 12, 2021 · 1 share · 1,465 followers View post →
ClimateScience
@climatescience · X

@tonybarnosky Up to 1 million species are currently threatened with #extinction largely as a result of human activity, e.g. pollution, deforestation, hunting, and climate change. Current rates of extinction are 1000x higher than we would expect! Source: https://t.co/mqvjCloiZ0 https://t.co/UvDqCTeauE

Mar 1, 2021 · 843 followers View post →
Erneste Nziranziza
@nzizanes · X

The 6 Craziest Extinctions Ever https://t.co/8JWTmJO0KC via @YouTube

Aug 11, 2020 · 950 followers View post →
ɯυ||σk
@wullok7 · X

Crazy Extinctions https://t.co/Ga50qAfaFM

Nov 15, 2019 · 769 followers View post →
brunz
@brunzso · X

RT @psdf: @wimbrooklyn @zjay2k6 @NathGAlexander @CalebJHull Here is an article that summarises the studies. -https://t.co/fygzjb5O98 The…

Oct 14, 2019 · 1 share · 504 followers View post →
psdf
@psdf · X

@wimbrooklyn @zjay2k6 @NathGAlexander @CalebJHull Here is an article that summarises the studies. -https://t.co/fygzjb5O98 The article itself is not peer reviewed, but the papers it cites are: -https://t.co/6R5Fgd189S -https://t.co/4kbhuVLvZS -https://t.co/Cj1SHgojox -https://t.co/XG6SbI1ht9 -https://t.co/KBK6hk0YFN

Oct 2, 2019 · 1 like · 1 share · 230 followers View post →
@Motochen
@Motochen · X

@Darth_Lehrer tja wir sind wohl die nächsten.... https://t.co/7nJ7DjzS2J

Sep 23, 2019 · 808 followers View post →
+
@egohue · X

@jhw229 no one recorded the events because humanity didnt exist yet. fossils are a very solid indicator- they showed species that lived before us and ideas of how they died. please watch this 5 minute video! i'd happily supply you with more links if you want https://t.co/r2V4qKBw5u

Aug 5, 2019 · 130 followers View post →
+
@egohue · X

@SamaParwani @fagcream yeah! https://t.co/5PFQR2ZqSG (5 mass extinctions & exctinction today) https://t.co/r2V4qKBw5u (3:00 to hear about the 6th incoming one) https://t.co/PFGx8vkltE (the sixth extinction: book summary) https://t.co/tMcV6FkwyO (signs we are in the 6th mass extinction)

Aug 5, 2019 · 1 like · 130 followers View post →
Brandy Alexander
@sexidance · X

@Megawarrior345 https://t.co/9kXDjkix42

Aug 5, 2019 · 1 like · 618 followers View post →
.
@friend51556633 · X

The 6 Craziest Extinctions Ever https://t.co/niXgcPkrsk ผ่าน @YouTube https://t.co/btr6AAuovQ

May 30, 2019 View post →
Martin Brampton
@MartinBrampton · X

@tracy__e @DarrinW74512672 @JuliePi31415926 @GillesnFio @DawnTJ90 @Niggledom @Tangomitteckel @SombreGreen @ClimateDan_ @PaulHughes11vic @hmailandt3 @Cosmic_Engineer @GWLarsson @carlblom_robert @nemo_gratis @SaferStone @manifesto2000 @lt_texan @Soronya @puntanenyahoo @Jeanjeannie20 @hoststhefartin1 @MurrayMack4 @kuhn_reinhard @SylviaD32911201 @Nc1908Neil @gjcats @Barbarajdurkin @javierchesimo @oldfosil66 @drwaheeduddin @YackyDoodleDnDy @KinkerMichards @eachus @2013Boodicca @heymikey80 @BarbaraMcK42 @JaggerMickOZ @dbirch214 @Lydienee @RogTallbloke @shookster1000 @JWSpry @Trismos @DenisCoghlan @Leigh252425 @nobadgers @CymaticWave @Chaologistician A great deal of research, such as this https://t.co/t9L7T19Flh

May 30, 2019 · 663 followers View post →
Lucía Juliá
@Luciajulia_15 · X

(2/14)

May 29, 2019 · 489 followers View post →
Chloro Queen
@TakeThatChem · X

@Kenneth72712993 @EumIob @MassiMassian @JoePubl39828914 @TWTThisIsNow @FloMartinSec @fagandr1 @coristus @ThomasPaine5 @PhilosophySeel @NuckChorris16 @DawnTJ90 @Greg49039425 @SylviaD32911201 @DoubleDumas @Zigmund_Fraud @PlatinumRuler @carlsmythe @RSchusterJR @SteveSGoddard @IngersolRobert @bcollinsk @MLBinWA @MesiaArte @sighandy58_andy @paultikotin @Jeanjeannie20 @AltUS_ARC @chriscartw83 @ILuvCO2 @EdDarrell @Professing_Prof @Dcoronata @ClimateRealists @PACleanwater @PMgeezer @dan613 @Robin_Hagues @RoyPentland @ReubenWills1 @Boi_dBoi_d @bjames280961 @_kevinmartin @PolAnimalAus @mytk56 @gjbangar @gershuni @sueytonius @NJSnowFan @priscian Yes your claim is wrong. Here's an example of how these things are calculated. https://t.co/a44mslPX2J

May 28, 2019 · 3,017 followers View post →
Daniel Baryon
@AnarkYouTube · X

@Pr0udAmerican @ideologicalized @WhatevinTrevin This is what somebody says who is too lazy to do the research themselves. And let's face it, the reason you don't want to go research this, is because you know the expert community agrees with that assessment. https://t.co/2TcJN42T6V

May 15, 2019 · 19,762 followers View post →
Anthony Ricciardi
@EcoInvasions · X

@KaiChanUBC And 10-100x the background rate is likely a conservative estimate of the pace of modern extinctions. 1000x is probably more accurate (https://t.co/dn3i8itZOZ). That's how much fast freshwater fishes are disappearing from N. America, for example. It is certainly unusually large.

May 11, 2019 · 2 likes · 4,572 followers View post →
Alejandro Flores
@afloressan_ · X

@raulgaitan

Apr 27, 2019 · 1 like · 685 followers View post →
Howling For Wolves
@Howling4Wolves · X

@YellowstoneDJ @endangered @HuffPostImpact Many peer-reviewed studies, and the consensus amongst scientists, show the current rate of extinction to be hunreds of time the regular background rate and that we are in fact in the midst of a 6th mass extinction. Here is a study that explains more. https://t.co/5e7FVcE3DF

Mar 21, 2019 · 1 like · 14,352 followers View post →
Ben Robinson
@BenRobinsonMV · X

@dwallacewells "Current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher." https://t.co/yFtdyYveWa

Feb 15, 2019 · 185 followers View post →
Henk Renting @henkrenting.bsky.social
@henkrentingruaf · X

@Hiddemhigh @olivierhonnay IK geloof er niets van "current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher." https://t.co/7c32IKI6zv

Jan 29, 2019 · 1,373 followers View post →
Jacquelyn Gill
@jacquelyngill.bsky.social · Bluesky

Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12380/abstract #365papers

Aug 7, 2015 View post →
Stu Butchart
@stubutchart.bsky.social · Bluesky

Background extinction rates are 10x lower than previously thought so current rates are >1000 times higher than normal http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12380/abstract

May 18, 2015 View post →