Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial.

Fernando G Zampieri, Jonathan D Casey, Manu Shankar-Hari, Frank E Harrell, Michael O Harhay

March 2021

Synopsis of Social media discussions

Many discussions focused on understanding Bayesian methods, with posts seeking guides for beginners and referencing secondary analyses of clinical trials. For instance, contributors shared resources and insights, emphasizing phrases like 'admiring that you’re working to learn more' and 'this is a great new paper', which indicate an encouraging and supportive tone, highlighting the potential influence of the publication on improving critical care practices.

A
Agreement
 Moderate agreement

The discussions reflect a general consensus that Bayesian methods provide valuable insights, with many reinforcing the publication's relevance in critical care.

I
Interest
 High level of interest

There is significant curiosity about Bayesian techniques, as evidenced by users seeking guides and sharing resources on the subject.

E
Engagement
 Moderate level of engagement

Participants are actively referencing specific methods and their implications, but the interaction is more informative than deeply analytical.

I
Impact
 High level of impact

The perceived implications of the research are seen as substantial, with many contributors suggesting these methods could change how trials are interpreted.

Social Mentions

YouTube

1 Videos

Twitter

102 Posts

Metrics

Video Views

65

Total Likes

304

Extended Reach

520,984

Social Features

103

Timeline: Posts about article

Top Social Media Posts

Posts referencing the article

Understanding Bayesian Analysis for Enhanced Research Insights

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65 views

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    @GvHD_Meade @sghmd This was an example demonstrating such a ‘retconned’ study: https://t.co/SK3MUV7p9r
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  • ben liao
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    RT @YukiKotani5: Guides for Bayesian beginners (including me
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    RT @YukiKotani5: Guides for Bayesian beginners (including me
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    December 20, 2022

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  • Cardiac Arrest Center - Ospedale San Raffaele
    @SRCardiacArrest (Twitter)

    RT @YukiKotani5: Guides for Bayesian beginners (including me
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    December 20, 2022

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  • 小谷祐樹 Yuki Kotani｜ICU × 臨床研究 × Podcast
    @YukiKotani5 (Twitter)

    Guides for Bayesian beginners (including me
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    December 20, 2022

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    24

  • Todd C. Lee
    @DrToddLee (Twitter)

    @AnilMakam @VPrasadMDMPH @YukiKotani5 @NEJMEvidence @neurointensivos @RitwikBhatiaMD @JBLascarrou @relm_11969 @SarinaKS @Paul_Wischmeyer @dakaufman123 @icmteaching You chose a variety of reasonable priors for sensitivity analysis and to show how they influence the outcome. There's a nice paper about secondary analysis of RCTs and potential priors here which is my go to. https://t.co/ARmepxE6mD @f_g_zampieri
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    December 19, 2022

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  • Syed Shahrul Naz
    @drshahrul80 (Twitter)

    RT @teddyhla: Reading list 1. https://t.co/DcNR6xxyEk
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    October 25, 2022

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  • Teddy Hla
    @teddyhla (Twitter)

    Reading list 1. https://t.co/DcNR6xxyEk
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    October 25, 2022

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  • Fernando Zampieri
    @f_g_zampieri (Twitter)

    @shanfernands @emily_fri @PaulNWilliamz @ecgoligher Overall: Frequentist analysis is based on obtaining estimates of a fixed effect based on random data. Bayesian analysis is estimating possible effect sizes compatible with data and prior. We discussed the background in https://t.co/5OBu6KKUNK
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    March 31, 2022

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  • F. B. Will Williams
    @fbwill_williams (Twitter)

    RT @michelle_d: @fbwill_williams @annehmardy @MFMSperling @UTHealthObGyn @BartalMichal @Scblackwellmd @clifton_brock @mfmchauhan @MichaelMA…
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    December 15, 2021

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  • Michelle Debbink, MD/PhD
    @michelle_d (Twitter)

    @fbwill_williams @annehmardy @MFMSperling @UTHealthObGyn @BartalMichal @Scblackwellmd @clifton_brock @mfmchauhan @MichaelMAzizMD1 @NanRaghuraman @MethodTuuli I like this very short overview on the #Stata website. https://t.co/AId3plc9xU And this is a nice article from the critical care literature relating #Bayes to #RCTs https://t.co/CSERI6ul58
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    December 15, 2021

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  • PAIR Center
    @PAIRCenter (Twitter)

    An oldie but a goodie. First pub from early 2021 from @Michael_Harhay Clinical Trials Methods and Outcomes Lab. Check it - https://t.co/oVRs391qic https://t.co/VjuezswtqD
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    October 29, 2021

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  • Arthur Albuquerque
    @arthur_alb1 (Twitter)

    article https://t.co/hPs69jm7j1 ; palette https://t.co/eLp2CekQEJ ; Plotting it with @mjskay 's ggdist
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    September 30, 2021

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  • Arthur Albuquerque
    @arthur_alb1 (Twitter)

    @DrToddLee @gushamilton @nickopotamus Indeed! I just followed Zampieri et al.’s suggestion https://t.co/zk7EZAQKvy. Lately, I have been wondering in a better way to express such priors. It’s hard for the non-expert reader to get a full sense of what those distributions in the log scale actually mean (1/2)
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    August 30, 2021

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  • Todd C. Lee
    @DrToddLee (Twitter)

    @jddneary @f2harrell @ADAlthousePhD @drjohnm @djc795 @stephensenn @statberry @KertViele @brophyj @kaulcsmc @PulmCrit @f_g_zampieri John, can we take their final results and apply a different prior if you'd like (more skeptical or neutral perhaps?) https://t.co/WybfIub2WH Also it helps that RAPID trial also released results which were favorable and I've a thread where I combine the data from both
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    August 7, 2021

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  • Gus Hamilton
    @gushamilton (Twitter)

    @arthur_alb1 @DrToddLee @karlahemming @rjlilford @DavidT_Arnold Thanks!! Here: https://t.co/uBF6M6SaXY (although they don't matter much, as you can see...)
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    April 6, 2021

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  • Angela Reiersen, MD, MPE
    @AngelaReiersen (Twitter)

    RT @DrToddLee: Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrB…
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    April 1, 2021

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  • Andrew Althouse
    @ADAlthousePhD (Twitter)

    @arthur_alb1 @SolomonKurz Arthur, I assume you’re familiar with this paper: https://t.co/WkaL3Qqo4s
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    March 27, 2021

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  • IU Pulmonary and Critical Care Fellowship
    @IUPCCM (Twitter)

    Journal club with @SKhanIU is combined with a year-long delve into Naked Statistics by @CharlesWheelan. Today we discussed this paper on baclofen in EtOH wdrawal- https://t.co/rfASqLJMPV And a bayesian methods detour touched on this by @f_g_zampieri https://t.co/WVuR4Er4Vm
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    March 17, 2021

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  • Toshiyuki Karumai
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 12, 2021

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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 12, 2021

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  • Anna Batchelor
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 12, 2021

    18

  • Alistair Roy
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 12, 2021

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  • Stuart Gillon
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 12, 2021

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  • Segun Olusanya (He/Him) iceman_ex@critcare.social
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 11, 2021

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  • JOSE URCIA VAZALLO
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 11, 2021

    18

  • Tim Frenzel
    @horstie (Twitter)

    Using #Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial #ARDS #ICU @atsblueeditor https://t.co/uAU9d0roZd
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    March 11, 2021

  • @load-depentent.bsky.social
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 11, 2021

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  • Rafael I Cabrera
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 11, 2021

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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    RT @ATSBlueEditor: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalys…
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    March 11, 2021

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    Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial
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  • Dr. Euclides Cavalcanti
    @Links_Medicus (Twitter)

    Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial – via @ATSBlueEditor https://t.co/sY0feOxEzH
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    March 3, 2021

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  • @SoMe4MV
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    RT @some4mv: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial https://t.co/zhPRpxiLO2 #SoMe4MV from @ATSBlueEditor
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    March 3, 2021

  • ICU Charts - Prof Maria Vargas
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    RT @some4mv: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of…
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    March 2, 2021

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  • Aminuddin
    @Aminuddin001 (Twitter)

    Bayesian in clinical trial vs frequentist statistics. https://t.co/icZKE3FuZT
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    March 1, 2021

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  • @SoMe4MV
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    Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials. An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Trial https://t.co/zhPRpxiLO2 #SoMe4MV from @ATSBlueEditor
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    March 1, 2021

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  • Bernhard Wernly
    @BernhardWernly (Twitter)

    RT @ADAlthousePhD: @raj_mehta @drjohnm @BenYAndrew I think it’s admirable that you’re working to learn more about this, John. For what it…
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    February 5, 2021

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  • Alejandro Videla
    @ajv67 (Twitter)

    RT @DrToddLee: Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrB…
    view full post

    February 2, 2021

    6

  • Ian medical
    @IanMedical (Twitter)

    RT @DrToddLee: Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrB…
    view full post

    February 1, 2021

    6

  • Raj Mehta
    @raj_mehta (Twitter)

    RT @DrToddLee: Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrB…
    view full post

    February 1, 2021

    6

  • Robert Clark
    @RGregoryClark (Twitter)

    RT @DrToddLee: Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrB…
    view full post

    February 1, 2021

    6

  • Ash Paul
    @pash22 (Twitter)

    RT @DrToddLee: Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrB…
    view full post

    February 1, 2021

    6

  • Todd C. Lee
    @DrToddLee (Twitter)

    Have used simulated dataset and approached bayesian thinking re colcorona as recommended by article: https://t.co/okSnVLSrBl Stata v 15 bayesian logit, 50000 repeats Probability OR <0.8 Neutral weak - 63% Pessimistic weak - 61% Optimistic weak - 67% @drjohnm @brophyj
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    February 1, 2021

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  • Frederico Rosário
    @FredericoRosri1 (Twitter)

    RT @pash22: Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials: An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of t…
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    January 31, 2021

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  • Ash Paul
    @pash22 (Twitter)

    Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials: An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment Trial https://t.co/ZnWuykp5Tf via @f_g_zampieri
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    January 31, 2021

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  • Episurgeon
    @episurgeon (Twitter)

    RT @ADAlthousePhD: @raj_mehta @drjohnm @BenYAndrew I think it’s admirable that you’re working to learn more about this, John. For what it…
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    January 30, 2021

    3

  • Raj Mehta
    @raj_mehta (Twitter)

    RT @ADAlthousePhD: @raj_mehta @drjohnm @BenYAndrew I think it’s admirable that you’re working to learn more about this, John. For what it…
    view full post

    January 30, 2021

    3

  • Andrew Althouse
    @ADAlthousePhD (Twitter)

    @raj_mehta @drjohnm @BenYAndrew I think it’s admirable that you’re working to learn more about this, John. For what it’s worth, a few folks you may recognize from elsewhere on Twitter write this in an effort to create a suggested framework for Bayesian re-analysis of trials: https://t.co/WkaL3Qqo4s
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    January 30, 2021

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  • Joshua Fein
    @joshuaafein (Twitter)

    @drjgauthier @RShouval https://t.co/TgJppIhBLX this is a great new paper (Harrell is a coauthor) which looks at effect of priors with different degrees of informativeness. They recommend providing results from a “skeptical”, “pessimistic” and “optimistic” prior when analyzing retrospectively.
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    January 29, 2021

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  • Tim Frenzel
    @horstie (Twitter)

    Using #Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials: An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment Trial | American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine https://t.co/GirFd8MahV @atsjournal #icu
    view full post

    December 28, 2020

  • Dale Needham, MD, PhD
    @DrDaleNeedham (Twitter)

    RT @gsmartinmd: Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_…
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    December 27, 2020

    6

  • Jordan Gauthier
    @drjgauthier (Twitter)

    RT @gsmartinmd: Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_…
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    December 27, 2020

    6

  • Daniele Orso
    @Orso_dan (Twitter)

    RT @gsmartinmd: Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_…
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    December 27, 2020

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  • Sheila Myatra
    @SheilaMyatra (Twitter)

    RT @gsmartinmd: Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_…
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    December 27, 2020

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  • Jon Casey
    @JonathanCaseyMD (Twitter)

    RT @gsmartinmd: Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_…
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    December 27, 2020

    6

  • Jerrold Levy, MD
    @JerroldLevy (Twitter)

    RT @gsmartinmd: Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_…
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    December 27, 2020

    6

  • Greg Martin
    @gsmartinmd (Twitter)

    Overview of Bayesian methods and interpretation in #CriticalCare trials from superteam @f_g_zampieri @JonathanCaseyMD @msh_manu @f2harrell @Michael_Harhay https://t.co/bIDH8I0ICU
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    December 27, 2020

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  • Syed Shahrul Naz
    @drshahrul80 (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 5, 2020

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  • Janny Ke, MD MSc
    @jannyke (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 5, 2020

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  • Ian medical
    @IanMedical (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 4, 2020

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  • Altay de Souza
    @altayals (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
    view full post

    December 4, 2020

    17

  • Ewan Goligher
    @ecgoligher (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
    view full post

    December 4, 2020

    17

  • Ewan Goligher
    @ecgoligher (Twitter)

    RT @ScottHalpernMD: Honest question for #medtwitter #criticalcare peeps: how many folks have had SENIOR author Blue Journal papers during f…
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    December 4, 2020

    2

  • Dale Needham, MD, PhD
    @DrDaleNeedham (Twitter)

    RT @ScottHalpernMD: Honest question for #medtwitter #criticalcare peeps: how many folks have had SENIOR author Blue Journal papers during f…
    view full post

    December 4, 2020

    2

  • Zudin
    @Zudin_P (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
    view full post

    December 4, 2020

    17

  • ICU Charts - Prof Maria Vargas
    @ICUCharts (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 4, 2020

    17

  • Scott Halpern
    @ScottHalpernMD (Twitter)

    Honest question for #medtwitter #criticalcare peeps: how many folks have had SENIOR author Blue Journal papers during first year on faculty? I sure as hell didn't, but @Michael_Harhay and colleagues contributed a beauty. https://t.co/LrnfbM8D8f
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Thomas Shanahan (Dr.) MRCEM
    @clifford0584 (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • benjamin wu
    @benjaminwumd (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Lakshman Swamy (laxswamy@bsky.social)
    @laxswamy (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Jenny Sullivan, PhD (she/her)
    @JLSullivan10 (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Ryan Haines
    @RW_Haines (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Luke Hodgson
    @drlhodgson (Twitter)

    Using Bayesian Methods to Augment the Interpretation of Critical Care Trials: An Overview of Theory and Example Reanalysis of the Alveolar Recruitment Trial | American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine | Articles in Press https://t.co/EqoWWDNnbE
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Matt Siuba
    @msiuba (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Critical Care Reviews
    @CritCareReviews (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Jon Casey
    @JonathanCaseyMD (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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    December 3, 2020

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  • Sarah Melville
    @sarahkmels (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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  • @load-depentent.bsky.social
    @load_dependent (Twitter)

    RT @f_g_zampieri: Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBl…
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  • Fernando Zampieri
    @f_g_zampieri (Twitter)

    Our paper on primer of Bayesian methods with emphasis on reanalysis of clinical trials has just appeared online at @ATSBlueEditor (open access). An honor to work together with such a stellar group. @Michael_Harhay, @msh_manu, @JonathanCaseyMD, @f2harrell. https://t.co/fzygjEpwr0
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Abstract Synopsis

  • Bayesian methods offer a clearer probabilistic interpretation of trial results compared to frequentist approaches, which can mislead with their reliance on p-values.
  • Reanalyzing completed trials using Bayesian techniques can enhance understanding, especially when effect estimates seem promising despite high p-values.
  • It's important to standardize the selection of prior beliefs in Bayesian analyses to avoid biased results, ensuring more reliable interpretations in critical care research.