Overall, the group's explorations of the article reveal a strong consensus that excess mortality data exposes a much higher COVID-19 toll in Russia than officially acknowledged. The tone and word choices, such as 'ridiculous undercount,' 'manipulation,' and references to detailed studies, emphasize skepticism and the urgency to question official statistics, indicating a high level of interest and engagement with the subject's societal impact.
AgreementModerate agreement
Most discussions strongly support the idea that Russia's official COVID-19 death toll is underestimated, often citing excess mortality data and studies to back their claims.
InterestHigh interest
Participants show high curiosity about the true impact of COVID-19 in Russia, referencing detailed analyses, studies, and regional data.
EngagementHigh engagement
Many posts analyze statistical discrepancies, comment on governmental transparency, and cite research, indicating deep involvement in the topic.
ImpactHigh impact
The discussions highlight significant concern about underreporting and its implications, suggesting the findings could influence public perception and policy debates.
Abstract in brief
The report suggests that the real impact of COVID-19 in Russia is much higher than official figures indicate, based on excess death data from 2020.
Excess mortality data shows a significantly greater number of deaths during the pandemic, pointing to underreporting or misclassification of COVID-19-related deaths.
This reveals that the true toll of COVID-19 in Russia is potentially much more severe than the official statistics suggest.]
For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
and the accompanying @signmagazine paper:
https://t.co/jhPus0HUCw https://t.co/ZpwcbbOmHU
Jan 2, 2022 · 80 likes · 12 shares · 8,728 followersView post →
DK
Dmitry Kobak
@hippopedoid · X
Getting back to Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine: no underdispersion, moderate undercount (1.8). Honest.
Russia: ridiculous underdispersion, strong undercount (3.3). Reporting is based on lies.
(See also my previous paper in @signmagazine on Russia: https://t.co/IfDEGhgiul.) /10 https://t.co/Vttt5QrPMG
9/15
Вот данные об избыточной смертности Дмитрия Кобака
https://t.co/Qwcato2Ko1
вот данные по регионам России
https://t.co/6CMFvzUD2w
и статья Дмитрия в журнале Significance Королевского статистического общества
https://t.co/meR1KGdS44
Feb 26, 2021 · 59 likes · 3 shares · 165,039 followersView post →
S
Significance
@signmagazine · X
Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily updated number, argues Dmitry Kobak (@hippopedoid) https://t.co/GiiJC7oMb5 #freetoread https://t.co/qBZlb3qJAc
Feb 15, 2021 · 19 likes · 10 shares · 14,977 followersView post →
AK
Ariel Karlinsky
@ArielKarlinsky · X
שותפי למחקר @hippopedoid עוקב אחר התמותה העודפת ברוסיה גם בחלוקה אזורית (עד סוף נובמבר 2021):
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
וכתב על כך מאמר לכתב העת @signmagazine:
https://t.co/jhPus0HUCw https://t.co/FvWD7YCgmu
Jan 2, 2022 · 18 likes · 8,728 followersView post →
AK
Ariel Karlinsky
@ArielKarlinsky · X
From the other direction: Russia, where the trend is NEGATIVE.
Less people died every passing year during 2015-2019. Ignoring it will lead to UNDER-estimation of excess deaths.
Russia's NSO predicted deaths to fall in 2020 before COVID! See Kobak (2021): https://t.co/QDW2hicxmA https://t.co/AVvWO6sn3O
Aug 16, 2021 · 17 likes · 1 share · 8,728 followersView post →
This case report discusses a severe SARS-CoV-2 reinfection with the South African 501YV2 variant, involving a 58-year-old male with prior mild COVID-19. Despite previous infection, he experienced severe respiratory…
The official Covid-19 death toll stands at about 55 million as of January 2022, but excess mortality estimates suggest a death toll between 1222 million, highlighting widespread underreporting. This video explores how…
Getting back to Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine: no underdispersion, moderate undercount (1.8). Honest.
Russia: ridiculous underdispersion, strong undercount (3.3). Reporting is based on lies.
(See also my previous paper in @signmagazine on Russia: https://t.co/IfDEGhgiul.) /10 https://t.co/Vttt5QrPMG
24/B
Similarly, one wouldn't claim the pandemic is over just because Russia etc. eased off restrictions, with a large number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19.
https://t.co/9EpxiCghLh
https://t.co/exCxe9CruD
@ArielKarlinsky from 30:11 - 31:16 :
https://t.co/jAQupHyIkV
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 14, 2022 · 12 shares · 2,249 followersView post →
ZK
Zoran Gabriel Svilar Kment
@zoranhorus · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 14, 2022 · 12 shares · 804 followersView post →
AS
Atomsk's Sanakan
@AtomsksSanakan · X
@msabouri @PienaarJm Re: "We know with some certainty that over 2 years Russia has had way more excess deaths than Covid deaths."
So you don't realize Russia's government under-estimated (likely willfully) COVID-19 deaths?
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 4, 2022 · 12 shares · 2,614 followersView post →
FB
Félix Balazard
@felbalazard · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 4, 2022 · 12 shares · 685 followersView post →
TO
@tomek@mastodon.online
@tomitoja · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 4, 2022 · 12 shares · 634 followersView post →
GA
Gagiige Anishinabek
@BoogidFfskw2002 · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 3, 2022 · 12 shares · 3,583 followersView post →
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Mitch
@everyonetalks21 · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 2, 2022 · 12 shares · 2,507 followersView post →
LP
Le Hussard #PFM
@CedLeHussard · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 2, 2022 · 12 shares · 2,833 followersView post →
AK
Alexandr Katashov
@Katashovak · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 2, 2022 · 12 shares · 127 followersView post →
ÁC
Ángel Carrillo
@Multiplex_Zero · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 2, 2022 · 12 shares · 1,425 followersView post →
K
K
@Khaled71262641 · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 2, 2022 · 12 shares · 290 followersView post →
AK
Ariel Karlinsky
@ArielKarlinsky · X
שותפי למחקר @hippopedoid עוקב אחר התמותה העודפת ברוסיה גם בחלוקה אזורית (עד סוף נובמבר 2021):
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
וכתב על כך מאמר לכתב העת @signmagazine:
https://t.co/jhPus0HUCw https://t.co/FvWD7YCgmu
Jan 2, 2022 · 18 likes · 8,728 followersView post →
SH
Stéphane Helleringer
@helleringer143 · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
an…
Jan 2, 2022 · 12 shares · 3,382 followersView post →
AK
Ariel Karlinsky
@ArielKarlinsky · X
For an in-depth regional analysis of excess mortality in Russia (Up to November 2021), see:
https://t.co/HfwtER2NFg
and the accompanying @signmagazine paper:
https://t.co/jhPus0HUCw https://t.co/ZpwcbbOmHU
Jan 2, 2022 · 80 likes · 12 shares · 8,728 followersView post →
IP
Ilya Kashnitsky — bsky @ikashnitsky.phd
@ikashnitsky · X
It has the regularly updated analysis of the two influential papers
@ArielKarlinsky @hippopedoid World Mortality Dataset @eLife mid 2021
https://t.co/sI3iCEht6H
and @hippopedoid paper on Russia in @signmagazine early 2021
https://t.co/Wfc5sVI7II https://t.co/cf8KUGLHLe
Dec 3, 2021 · 2 likes · 6,156 followersView post →
M
MB
@Redkick7 · X
RT @hippopedoid: My paper analyzing excess mortality in Russia in April-November 2020 (264k deaths) is out in @signmagazine with great edit…
@srbonfiretoffee Yes, sure, the undercount ratio in last months in Russia has been between 2 and 3. It used to be much higher by the way, but got better recently. Still too high of course.
https://t.co/083u98Q847
https://t.co/IfDEGhgiul
https://t.co/wN2pmJEXBw https://t.co/SSGHxRJR1E
Oct 15, 2021 · 3 likes · 7,463 followersView post →
AK
Ariel Karlinsky
@ArielKarlinsky · X
@Ynav @BenGera9 https://t.co/1S5iveIcZ5
https://t.co/5zdqZrCsEC
הממצאים האלה נמצאים גם במאמר שלנו שעבר ביקורת עמיתים: https://t.co/bokyV6B6EI
וגרסה קצת יותר מוקדמת אבל גם קצת יותר נגישה במאמר של עמיתי @hippopedoid: https://t.co/QDW2hicxmA
Oct 14, 2021 · 2 likes · 8,728 followersView post →
K
Kiv
@predanegato · X
RT @ArielKarlinsky: @leonardocarella @AndreasShrugged There's ample evidence that Russia manipulates their COVID death counts.
See Kobak (…
@BallouxFrancois There's ample evidence that Russia manipulates their COVID death counts. See Kobak (2021) and Karlinsky & Kobak (2021).
https://t.co/QDW2hicxmA
https://t.co/bokyV6B6EI https://t.co/o77fQ3ia4N
@leonardocarella @AndreasShrugged There's ample evidence that Russia manipulates their COVID death counts.
See Kobak (2021) and Karlinsky & Kobak (2021)
https://t.co/QDW2hicxmA
https://t.co/bokyV6B6EI https://t.co/rXgf50azWZ
From the other direction: Russia, where the trend is NEGATIVE.
Less people died every passing year during 2015-2019. Ignoring it will lead to UNDER-estimation of excess deaths.
Russia's NSO predicted deaths to fall in 2020 before COVID! See Kobak (2021): https://t.co/QDW2hicxmA https://t.co/AVvWO6sn3O
Aug 16, 2021 · 17 likes · 1 share · 8,728 followersView post →
AS
Atomsk's Sanakan
@AtomsksSanakan · X
19/U
Levin et al. implies ~1% IFR for St. Petersburg, Russia.
But the Russian government's official total under-estimates COVID-19 deaths:
https://t.co/exCxe9CruD
https://t.co/9EpxiCghLh
[https://t.co/K4WblKl3A6]
Excess deaths fits the prediction:
https://t.co/Ao1ALyWydy https://t.co/LI2fSl6pKr
Aug 3, 2021 · 12 likes · 3,345 followersView post →
MP
Marco Piani
@Marco_Piani · X
Note that Russian COVID-19 deaths are likely underreported. See, e.g.,
https://t.co/XFAnDOzXxw by @hippopedoid
Updates here https://t.co/rAXU7qM6Bx
@ikashnitsky may also chip in
Here's a study about the large discrepancy in reported deaths, last year was likely twice as bad as in terms of deaths than the US.
https://t.co/k976wYQIuK
@Fockdatshitt @XtazGamess @JLGagnaire @Le_Figaro @MLP_officiel @JLMelenchon Mais dans la mesure où tu sembles être totalement abruti, ou totalement de mauvaise foi a dire qu'il n'y a toujours pas de source
Tu peux aller lire et te documenter sur les travaux de Kobak
Tu veux pas non plus une traduction et surligner des passages ?
https://t.co/wGGCDFbdGF
@dudkevi4 @shcherbininainn @maria09121953 Ось тут коеф трохи менший - 1,8. Більше, ніж в 3 рази - то вигадки або, скажімо, песимістичні гіпотези
https://t.co/QTtGJvfOZu
@saifedean Gray column is official COVID deaths, red one - real, based on numbers of excessive death.
https://t.co/zAbE02lZPV
https://t.co/IpYNijz6EN https://t.co/6Rwp7UtBDw
@vincentglad Plus!, car il y a en Russie certainement + que 250K de deces cumule maintenant https://t.co/nxyC0l1oOh et il y a aussi bcp d'excess mortality ailleurs en Europe https://t.co/yH40ASK1C3
@lonougou @dr_l_alexandre @OlivierBabeau @nbouzou @YvesPDB @LezatDarcourt @alainhoupert @GilbertDeray @nathanpsmad Mis à part Moscow & Saint-Pete, les chiffres officiels en Russie ne sont pas représentatif de la réalité (~ 7 fois + de décès). Et donc la baisse pourrait s’expliquer par un taux d’immunisation déjà élevé de gens précédemment contaminés https://t.co/nxyC0l1oOh
@novaya_gazeta Ого, интересная информация. Только согласно анализу на основе открытых данных, только с апрель по ноябрь 2020 было больше 200 тысяч человек. https://t.co/k9feQ5k44O
Судя по достоверности, это данные ВЦИОМА, так не пи**ит даже Росстат.
@MBKhMedia Ого, интересная информация. Только согласно анализу на основе открытых данных, только с апрель по ноябрь 2020 было больше 200 тысяч человек. https://t.co/k9feQ5k44O
Судя по достоверности, это данные ВЦИОМА, так не пи**ит даже Росстат.
RT @hippopedoid: My paper analyzing excess mortality in Russia in April-November 2020 (264k deaths) is out in @signmagazine with great edit…
Mar 3, 2021 · 37 shares · 138 followersView post →
B
Besamepoco
@BesamePoco · X
@WahnSager Russland meldete für Apr-Nov'20 40.500 Covid-19-Tote, gleichzeitig aber 264.100 Tote Übersterblichkeit, das 6.5-fache.
Das versteht unser Statistik-Genie nicht.
https://t.co/rl8e6x0Q2y https://t.co/YjkHxpqItk
RT @hippopedoid: My paper analyzing excess mortality in Russia in April-November 2020 (264k deaths) is out in @signmagazine with great edit…
Mar 1, 2021 · 37 shares · 2,871 followersView post →
NR
Natasha from Russia
@natashasrussia · X
@brubrubraz I don’t know how much we can trust official stats though, because Russia has issues with excess deaths.
https://t.co/85R67QMpRA
So we are almost as the US...but our population is way smaller https://t.co/GMiNhZEblR
RT @sguriev: 9/15
Вот данные об избыточной смертности Дмитрия Кобака
https://t.co/Qwcato2Ko1
вот данные по регионам России
https://t.co/6C…
Feb 27, 2021 · 3 shares · 826 followersView post →
SG
Sergei Guriev
@sguriev · X
9/15
Вот данные об избыточной смертности Дмитрия Кобака
https://t.co/Qwcato2Ko1
вот данные по регионам России
https://t.co/6CMFvzUD2w
и статья Дмитрия в журнале Significance Королевского статистического общества
https://t.co/meR1KGdS44
Feb 26, 2021 · 59 likes · 3 shares · 165,039 followersView post →
PT
Pekka Taipale
@ptaipale · X
@PAlfthan @mtmalinen @GraviolaDOTfi ... Suomessa, koska epidemia ei ole päässyt leviämään rajoitustoimien ansiosta.
Sitten taas esim. Yhdysvalloissa on.
Tai Venäjällä, jossa ylikuolleisuus viime vuonna oli 250 000 ihmisen luokkaa.
https://t.co/4BftjU2HAs
Feb 24, 2021 · 2 likes · 1,477 followersView post →
M
Masha
@arctic_lanes · X
@i_eto_projdet Уже посчитали. У нас первое место, если не считать Перу. И по Индии статистики нет, там вообще непонятно что творится https://t.co/oh2SnC6ItA
RT @signmagazine: Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily u…
Feb 18, 2021 · 10 shares · 344 followersView post →
NT
Nikolaus von Twickel
@niktwick · X
Assuming a population of 41 million, that amounts to 78 deaths per 100,000 instead of the official 45. But that is still much, much less than Russia's estimated excess death rate of 256 (officialy 55) see https://t.co/owBIRHY6un
Feb 18, 2021 · 1 share · 12,639 followersView post →
HE
H. Eric
@ericlo · X
@BandyXLee1 https://t.co/gpqFtPAYh2
Dr John Campbell @Johnincarlisle
Excess mortality, etc.
Published Feb 15, 2021
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
@JRSS_A · X
RT @signmagazine: Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily u…
Feb 16, 2021 · 10 shares · 1,143 followersView post →
C
CaraMia200
@CaraMia200 · X
RT @Russ1314: @CaraMia200 @DavidKehoe10 @DanielAndrewsMP Interesting comments from UK authority Dr John Campbell about Victoria (& Australi…
Feb 16, 2021 · 1 share · 13,501 followersView post →
R
Russ13
@Russ1314 · X
@CaraMia200 @DavidKehoe10 @DanielAndrewsMP Interesting comments from UK authority Dr John Campbell about Victoria (& Australia) handling the pandemic - about 13 minutes in:
https://t.co/rGYZFxZR64
Feb 15, 2021 · 2 likes · 1 share · 601 followersView post →
PS
Prof dr mr W F Zondervan PhG, SGMV
@MediaservicesEU · X
Update (engels) over geneesmiddelen voor #Covid_19 #covid19 en #griep #influenza met #peerreview https://t.co/PJ6Rvs0JX9 via @YouTube
RT @signmagazine: Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily u…
Feb 15, 2021 · 10 shares · 8,728 followersView post →
RS
Royal Statistical Society
@RoyalStatSoc · X
RT @signmagazine: Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily u…
Feb 15, 2021 · 10 shares · 32,501 followersView post →
DK
Dmitry Kobak
@hippopedoid · X
RT @signmagazine: Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily u…
Feb 15, 2021 · 10 shares · 7,463 followersView post →
S
Significance
@signmagazine · X
Data on excess deaths in Russia in 2020 paint a much bleaker picture of the #covid19 death toll than the official daily updated number, argues Dmitry Kobak (@hippopedoid) https://t.co/GiiJC7oMb5 #freetoread https://t.co/qBZlb3qJAc
Feb 15, 2021 · 19 likes · 10 shares · 14,977 followersView post →
Der korrekte Link zu der #Corona-Studie über die epidemiologische Situation in #Russland und die dortige #COVID19-Sterblichkeit:
https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1740-9713.01486