The social discussions demonstrate strong support for the research suggesting an earlier emergence of SARS-CoV-2, with phrases like 'brilliant paper' and 'stunning experimental design' conveying high regard. Participants reference key studies and specific dates such as 'mid-October to mid-November 2019', illustrating detailed engagement and interest in the nuances of pandemic origin debates.
AgreementStrong agreement
The discussions consistently support the idea that the virus's emergence likely occurred earlier than previously believed, emphasizing scholarly consensus.
InterestHigh interest
The posts clearly show high curiosity and engagement with the research, referencing multiple studies and debating the timing of initial cases.
EngagementHigh engagement
Many participants reference specific papers, dates, and scientific debates, indicating deep involvement and detailed analysis of the research findings.
ImpactHigh impact
The discussions could influence ongoing investigations and public perceptions about pandemic origins, highlighting their notable societal and scientific significance.
Abstract in brief
The study used a combination of molecular clock analysis and epidemiological simulations to estimate that SARS-CoV-2 most likely first emerged in Hubei province, China, between mid-October and mid-November 2019.
It found that many early zoonotic infections of SARS-CoV-2 likely died out on their own, which contributed to the delayed detection and containment of the virus.
The research emphasizes the limitations of current zoonosis surveillance methods for identifying highly contagious viruses that may not initially cause severe disease, underscoring the challenges in early detection of pandemics.]
@arguablywrong @slatestarcodex It gets worse. As evidence against an earlier introduction, @slatestarcodex presents a doctored version of Fig. 3E from Pekar et al.'s "Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province", 2021. https://t.co/O5X40knsWX
@arguablywrong @slatestarcodex "Timing..." dated epidemic simulations by aligning them with tMRCAs drawn from posterior distributions from BEAST, and then rejected them if they did not have an ascertained case by a specific date - for Fig. 3E it was December 1 https://t.co/NT6WDWqXrt
26/ If this turns out to be correct, Pekar’s period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 corresponds not to the index case of Covid-19 as a whole as they suggest, but to the index case a more-transmissible variant, which now dominates
https://t.co/ZmLVsok7F4
Jan 2, 2022 · 16 likes · 2,115 followersView post →
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Christian Pérez
@christianperez · X
May 3, 2024 · 13 likes · 1 share · 11,895 followersView post →
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Peter Miller
@tgof137 · X
That alone does not prove that the outbreak started at Huanan market.
There could still have been a few cases before the market outbreak, before the TMRCA.
https://t.co/OBNKj4LSWD https://t.co/QtziqID1pq
Feb 13, 2025 · 12 likes · 3,506 followersView post →
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Hon Prof Colin D Butler PhD etc.
@ColinDavdButler · X
@Florin_Uncovers Pekar, Worobey et al ["Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province"]: Our results define period b/w mid-Oct & mid-Nov 2019 as plausible interval when 1st case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China. DOI: 10.1126/science.abm44. How did their 2022 papers pass peer review?
Mar 8, 2023 · 11 likes · 2,928 followersView post →
In this episode of Le Débat du Jour, we discuss the impact of COVID-19 with researcher Stéphane De Mita. Recent findings suggest that the virus may have circulated in Europe earlier than believed, based on a study…
RT @nizzaneela: @arguablywrong @slatestarcodex It gets worse. As evidence against an earlier introduction, @slatestarcodex presents a docto…
Aug 25, 2025 · 16 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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Peter Miller
@tgof137 · X
Then he wrote a paper investigating whether there might be cases before the market outbreak, and modeling how many pre-market cases there could possibly be.
(spoiler: the answer is not very many -- simulations predicted only 9 infections in November)
https://t.co/OBNKj4LSWD
Jun 25, 2025 · 8 likes · 3,506 followersView post →
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Peter Miller
@tgof137 · X
That alone does not prove that the outbreak started at Huanan market.
There could still have been a few cases before the market outbreak, before the TMRCA.
https://t.co/OBNKj4LSWD https://t.co/QtziqID1pq
Feb 13, 2025 · 12 likes · 3,506 followersView post →
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Peter Miller
@tgof137 · X
In 2021, Jonathan Pekar wrote a paper simulating the epidemic in Wuhan.
https://t.co/OBNKj4LSWD
That paper actually argued that a lab leak was still possible -- Worobey and Pekar were not convinced by the data yet, back in 2021.
https://t.co/9eRUp5lcQT
Feb 6, 2025 · 7 likes · 3,506 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @RicketRobin @ydeigin @jbloom_lab . @michaelworobey & @jepekar did this --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster…
Dec 17, 2024 · 4 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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bubba’s lmn chop shop
@LmBubba · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @RicketRobin @ydeigin @jbloom_lab . @michaelworobey & @jepekar did this --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster…
Dec 17, 2024 · 4 shares · 2,053 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Muchfaster: 27/ @MichaelWorobey et al
https://t.co/wqM2yMDSlf
Oct 6, 2024 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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#FasterThanPreviouslyExpected
@Muchfaster · X
27/ @MichaelWorobey et al
https://t.co/wqM2yMDSlf
Oct 2, 2024 · 3 likes · 1 share · 134 followersView post →
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#FasterThanPreviouslyExpected
@Muchfaster · X
@Science54900201 @Voices4Vaccines The last bone I’ll throw you.
https://t.co/wqM2yMEqaN
@TedMoondust @DkSemyon @nikocosmonaut Dec 10 is not the actual starting date, there can be a few cases before TMRCA.
If you want to get into the details of that more, Pekar et al 2021 is a fairly easy read, that estimated the possible number of November cases (very low, median of 9)
https://t.co/OBNKj4LSWD https://t.co/lmpyUk204W
Sep 14, 2024 · 1 like · 3,506 followersView post →
Jun 23, 2024 · 5 shares · 3,360 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @mbw61567742 @tgof137 @Muller_Lab Pekar 2021:
"Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 201…
Jun 13, 2024 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@mbw61567742 @tgof137 @Muller_Lab Pekar 2021:
"Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 13, 2024 · 4 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
@arguablywrong @slatestarcodex "Timing..." dated epidemic simulations by aligning them with tMRCAs drawn from posterior distributions from BEAST, and then rejected them if they did not have an ascertained case by a specific date - for Fig. 3E it was December 1 https://t.co/NT6WDWqXrt
@arguablywrong @slatestarcodex It gets worse. As evidence against an earlier introduction, @slatestarcodex presents a doctored version of Fig. 3E from Pekar et al.'s "Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province", 2021. https://t.co/O5X40knsWX
That sounds pretty close to Pekar et al 2021, which gave median of 9 cases before December 1st:
https://t.co/OBNKj4Ll75
Mar 25, 2024 · 10 likes · 3,506 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @ColinDavdButler: @ibisibis123 @Rebecca21951651 @Ayjchan Unimpressive reviewers also missed flaws found by Stoyan & Chiu (doi: 10.1093/j…
Mar 19, 2024 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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Hon Prof Colin D Butler PhD etc.
@ColinDavdButler · X
@ibisibis123 @Rebecca21951651 @Ayjchan Unimpressive reviewers also missed flaws found by Stoyan & Chiu (doi: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad139). This paper exemplifies poor epi, its foundations are v. weak. doi 10.1126/science.abf8003 (Pekar & W) concluded mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2019 likely time 1st case emerged in Hubei.
Mar 19, 2024 · 3 likes · 1 share · 2,928 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @BiophysicsFL: Worobey:
Science [Report] (Mar 2021) started mid-Nov to mid-Oct - so NOT market
Science[Perspective] (Nov 2021) "strong…
Feb 8, 2024 · 4 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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Louis R Nemzer
@BiophysicsFL · X
@nizzaneela @RobTownley6 @harishseshadri2 @tgof137 @KatherineEban Their molecular clock in 2021 was telling them something different...
https://t.co/uOWKOKN6wv https://t.co/nHBZqedBMW
Feb 5, 2024 · 2 likes · 4,368 followersView post →
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Steve Massey
@stevenemassey · X
@pcfurin @john_bumblebee @Samuel_Gregson @PhilippMarkolin SCITE uses maximum likelihood to determine the order of mutations
They then use a mutation rate determined by an earlier pub by Pekar and Worobey
Jan 11, 2024 · 3 likes · 4,778 followersView post →
Jan 10, 2024 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@_everythingism @flodebarre @C_Kavanagh @emilyakopp @MichaelWorobey @WHO @MarionKoopmans @TheaKFischer Worobey et al:
Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event..... This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-Oct to mid-Nov of 2019
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jan 10, 2024 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
Jan 10, 2024 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@_everythingism @flodebarre @C_Kavanagh @emilyakopp @MichaelWorobey @WHO @MarionKoopmans @TheaKFischer Talk to Worobey:
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event... analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019 "
Jan 10, 2024 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @RicketRobin @ydeigin @jbloom_lab . @michaelworobey & @jepekar did this --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster…
Jan 6, 2024 · 4 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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polyploidy
@blink64 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @RicketRobin @ydeigin @jbloom_lab . @michaelworobey & @jepekar did this --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster…
@RicketRobin @ydeigin @jbloom_lab . @michaelworobey & @jepekar did this --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late Dec of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event...pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-Oct to mid-Nov of 2019"
No need to repeat the work.
Jan 5, 2024 · 9 likes · 4 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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VeritasVincit
@VeritasVincit5 · X
@AtomsksSanakan @AndyMLinn @past_is_future You cited what is basically an editorial presented as a review.
Let's discuss Pekar et al., 2021. Have a read:
https://t.co/nEp31zBJsU
@WashburneAlex This is a ‘sanitised’ view....September 2019 has been shown more likely...;
https://t.co/cQcZFp3biu
Oct 10, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,035 followersView post →
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Philipp Markolin, PhD
@PhilippMarkolin · X
@Samuel_Gregson @_everythingism @mbw61567742 @zeynep @stephen_lagana @BrianRWasik Thats from Jonathan Pekar, 2021. https://t.co/7RTNQwN4h9
Aug 31, 2023 · 3 likes · 4,501 followersView post →
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Keith
@mosheroperandi · X
@grizwald87 @mbalter @zeynep @tommy2t45103307 @BiophysicsFL @MarioKoopmans @R_H_Ebright @janeqiuchina @sciencecohen Having early introductions of sparks that failed to start blazes differs a lot from having a singular index case that just sort of smolders though.
Epidemiological and genetic modeling puts patient 0 in the Oct-Nov time range:
https://t.co/9YW2paedOF https://t.co/NpSmNkZxNA
"Consequently, the index case in Hubei likely contracted SARS-CoV-2 on or around 4 November 2019 (95% upper HPD: 15 October; 99% upper HPD: 7 October)"
https://t.co/RizhG0gMzW https://t.co/UkEGoaQtxr
@cshperspectives Shocked to see this paper has not been retracted. How many charlatans have been emboldened seeing scientists evade valid criticisms from an undergraduate in eLetters, and then change the results in a later paper, exactly as predicted by that undergraduate? https://t.co/VFBJFyolGb
@TheTropaion @nizzaneela @Ayjchan And @michaelworobey & @jepekar don't say that Dec market data represent initiating event but earlier unknown event caused it -- how that connects to the market is done via flawed geospatial analysis. Earlier Worobey paper:
Read 2nd sentence of abstract:
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jul 9, 2023 · 1 like · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @BiophysicsFL "Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating…
@BiophysicsFL "Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
- @michaelworobey & @jepekar
@bmichaels90025 @jbkinney @BiosafetyNow Not to mention they self contradict:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jul 4, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @danwalker9999 @scotub @carlzimmer Also @michaelworobey & @jepekar --
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late…
@danwalker9999 @scotub @carlzimmer Also @michaelworobey & @jepekar --
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
@jaredpretender @abhishek_s_1 @gtuckerkellogg @MJnanostretch @BenFPiercePhD Worobey and Pekar do a good job of rebutting themselves:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
@BenFPiercePhD @Biorealism @MichaelWorobey @scotub Even @michaelworobey & @jepekar argue that market cases are unlikely to be origin of the pandemic: The market cases are just a super-spreader
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jul 4, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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Daniel A. Walker
@danwalker9999 · X
@BenFPiercePhD @MichaelWorobey Response 2.
The tweet from @flodebarre has been deleted.
The likelihood of a COVID origin prior to Dec2019 has been argued by others, including Worobey himself: https://t.co/sCanJWYEvf https://t.co/GqMqIOo3La
@Ticklicker56 @emilyakopp @MichaelWorobey @jepekar This paper:
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
says:
"Therefore, the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. "
But @jepekar paper says Nov-Dec 2019 market event was likely origin of pandemic.
Seems contradictory.
RT @Rebecca21951651: @Ticklicker56 @emilyakopp But they also argue against the market being the location of the initiating event:
"Therefo…
Jun 21, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Ticklicker56 @emilyakopp But they also argue against the market being the location of the initiating event:
"Therefore, the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. "
Which @michaelworobey do you believe?
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 21, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Ticklicker56 @emilyakopp @MichaelWorobey @jepekar It's not necessarily a firm contradiction but you can read what they write:
"the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. "
They argue 2 different things in 2 different papers
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
@stgoldst @alchemytoday @joshrogin https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. ...This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019 "
Jun 20, 2023 · 2 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @emilyakopp Yeah -- @michaelworobey & @jepekar agree:
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"the Wuhan cluster of infections ident…
Jun 20, 2023 · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@emilyakopp Yeah -- @michaelworobey & @jepekar agree:
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"the Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event...this analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019"
Jun 20, 2023 · 9 likes · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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Michael Worobey
@MichaelWorobey · X
@TheTropaion @Graybea71861266 @edwardcholmes @flodebarre There is even one lab there that collaborated with EcoHealth Alliance, so you could have the same story about connections to them and thereby to Anthony Fauci, etc.
And our work shows that this virus needed a city to emerge:
https://t.co/ekEkhO3ilS
Jun 13, 2023 · 5 likes · 12,327 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @Florin_Uncovers If you want to talk about illogical...let's also discuss earlier @michaelworobey & @jepekar paper:
"…
Jun 8, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Florin_Uncovers If you want to talk about illogical...let's also discuss earlier @michaelworobey & @jepekar paper:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
Jun 8, 2023 · 5 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @Florin_Uncovers @nameandnumber79 Worobey and Pekar already rebutted Worobey and Pekar --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 7, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Florin_Uncovers @nameandnumber79 Worobey and Pekar already rebutted Worobey and Pekar --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 7, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @AdrianJ44426152 @chasewnelson @WHO @DrMikeRyan Moreover, @MichaelWorobey & @jepekar themselves argue against the Dec…
Jun 4, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@AdrianJ44426152 @chasewnelson @WHO @DrMikeRyan Moreover, @MichaelWorobey & @jepekar themselves argue against the Dec timeframe for initial zoonosis:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 4, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @R_H_Ebright @mbalter @gdemaneuf Those authors contradict themselves in print.
" Wuhan cluster of infections identifi…
Jun 2, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@R_H_Ebright @mbalter @gdemaneuf Those authors contradict themselves in print.
" Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. "
-- @MichaelWorobey & @jepekar
@hholdenthorp @sciencecohen @natashaloder @KatherineEban
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 2, 2023 · 4 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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Matt_CH4+Ni
@Matt_021LA · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @R_H_Ebright @harishseshadri2 @MichaelWorobey @KatherineEban Being Schrodinger's Worobey, did you know I wrote a paper…
RT @Rebecca21951651: @dkupiecki @BenFPiercePhD @MichaelWorobey Oh yeah...he even published a couple of times on origins.
"Wuhan cluster of…
Jun 1, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@dkupiecki @BenFPiercePhD @MichaelWorobey Oh yeah...he even published a couple of times on origins.
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event......analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-Oct to mid-Nov of 2019 "
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 1, 2023 · 4 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @R_H_Ebright @harishseshadri2 @MichaelWorobey @KatherineEban Being Schrodinger's Worobey, did you know I wrote a paper…
Jun 1, 2023 · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@R_H_Ebright @harishseshadri2 @MichaelWorobey @KatherineEban Being Schrodinger's Worobey, did you know I wrote a paper saying the market was NOT the origin of the pandemic, .....yes w/ Schrodinger's @jepekar !
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late Dec 2019 may not have represented the initiating event."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
Jun 1, 2023 · 3 likes · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
May 30, 2023 · 3 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Engineer2The @thackerpd @Bryce_Nickels @hkakeya @danaparish @LarryBoorstein @peter_berghmans @lab_leak @InWuchang @MonaRahalkar @BlackTomThePyr8 @angelaronnette I feel strongly that @worobey & @jepekar listen to Worobey & Pekar
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event...this analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October..."
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
May 30, 2023 · 10 likes · 3 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @Biorealism @rilkefan1 @EmaNymton90 @simon_schama @BBCr4today @DavidBahry @scotub Maybe he meant this Pekar/Worobey pi…
May 30, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Biorealism @rilkefan1 @EmaNymton90 @simon_schama @BBCr4today @DavidBahry @scotub Maybe he meant this Pekar/Worobey piece!
May 30, 2023 · 4 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @JamieMetzl @WHO @DrMikeRyan Even @MichaelWorobey and @jepekar argued that virus originated earlier:
"Wuhan cluster o…
May 21, 2023 · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@JamieMetzl @WHO @DrMikeRyan Even @MichaelWorobey and @jepekar argued that virus originated earlier:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late Dec of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event... analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-Oct to mid-Nov"
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
May 20, 2023 · 7 likes · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
May 11, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@BiophysicsFL @kellywind @Biorealism Schrodinger's @jepekar & @MichaelWorobey sez:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event.......analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October to mid-November of 2019"
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
May 11, 2023 · 2 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @mbalter @MJnanostretch @DavidBahry @dkupiecki @jhouse678 @Ayjchan Earliest *known* cluster has nothing at all to do w…
May 7, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@mbalter @MJnanostretch @DavidBahry @dkupiecki @jhouse678 @Ayjchan Earliest *known* cluster has nothing at all to do with the actual earliest cluster, which remains unknown.
Listen to @MichaelWorobey & @jepekar -- the "experts"
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster of infections in late Dec..may not have represented the initiating event..."
May 7, 2023 · 5 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @alchemytoday @JamieMetzl Depends which Schrodinger's @jepekar you go with:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified…
May 6, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
May 6, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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@Rebecca21951651 · X
@levine2001 @natashaloder @Ayjchan @MarionKoopmans @TheaKFischer @DrMikeRyan Or, heck @MichaelWorobey --
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event. ...This analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October "
May 6, 2023 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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Rebecc@ ███████
@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651:
May 6, 2023 · 2 shares · 2,413 followersView post →
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Rebecc@ ███████
@Rebecca21951651 · X
RT @Rebecca21951651: @Ayjchan @flodebarre @natashaloder And, in any case, @MichaelWorobey tells us:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identifie…
May 6, 2023 · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
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Rebecc@ ███████
@Rebecca21951651 · X
@Ayjchan @flodebarre @natashaloder And, in any case, @MichaelWorobey tells us:
"Wuhan cluster of infections identified in late December of 2019 may not have represented the initiating event...analysis pushes human-to-human transmission back to mid-October"
https://t.co/qxDykEYtsp
May 6, 2023 · 2 likes · 1 share · 2,413 followersView post →
RT @AntGDuarte: @dreasmo @MichaelWorobey @PeterDaszak Thanks for pointing this out!
Let me take the opportunity to add some other reasons…
Mar 27, 2023 · 1 share · 1,926 followersView post →
AD
António Duarte
@AntGDuarte · X
@dreasmo @MichaelWorobey @PeterDaszak Thanks for pointing this out!
Let me take the opportunity to add some other reasons why the choice of cities above is misleading.
Quotes and screenshots from the supplementary file of Pekar et al "Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei Province"
Mar 27, 2023 · 8 likes · 1 share · 1,365 followersView post →
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djonlineme
@djonlineme · X
@_everythingism @PartiallyVeiled @ydeigin Where did the data come from to produce this?
https://t.co/620EZWzuDB
@Florin_Uncovers Pekar, Worobey et al ["Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province"]: Our results define period b/w mid-Oct & mid-Nov 2019 as plausible interval when 1st case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China. DOI: 10.1126/science.abm44. How did their 2022 papers pass peer review?
Mar 8, 2023 · 11 likes · 2,928 followersView post →
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Daniel A. Walker
@danwalker9999 · X
@Ayjchan Remind me: has Pekar2021 been corrected? updated? refuted?
“Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged”
https://t.co/WMtzxoDa44 https://t.co/a2XlWKEZtI
Mar 7, 2023 · 7 likes · 1 share · 1,785 followersView post →
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Greg
@Greg21143362 · X
RT @biorxivpreprint: Timing the SARS-CoV-2 Index Case in Hubei Province https://t.co/lz1XWa515H #bioRxiv
Aug 16, 2022 · 2 shares · 2,035 followersView post →
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Kirt
@evolving_string · X
"Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province" https://t.co/qXcgCPLqkz
@Varro_Analytics @carlzimmer Worobey claims to correct this bias; but Pekar, Worobey et al [Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province] state: "results define period b/w mid-Oct & mid-Nov 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China." Wrong then?
@stuartjdneil @scotub Kumar et al. (2022) are citing the 2021 paper by Pekar et al. in Science: 'Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province'.
Not their 2022 preprint.
https://t.co/FffdYSpSl5
Mar 31, 2022 · 2 likes · 1,365 followersView post →
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António Duarte
@AntGDuarte · X
@BiophysicsFL "In this sense, Pekar et al. (2021) have likely dated an event that occurred downstream of the MRCA."
[However, this Pekar et al. ref should be 'Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province', not the Virological post listed in the references, right @sergeilkp?]
Mar 30, 2022 · 5 likes · 1,365 followersView post →
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Hon Prof Colin D Butler PhD etc.
@ColinDavdButler · X
@DFisman @Ayjchan @verswagon Pekar, Worobey et al [Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province, Science, 2021] state: "Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China." Credulous press
Mar 25, 2022 · 1 like · 2,928 followersView post →
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leonie
@leo264x · X
RT @IbnNadjar: How can Worobey take part in this paper (Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province) and not mention this conclusion…
RT @IbnNadjar: How can Worobey take part in this paper (Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province) and not mention this conclusion…
Mar 14, 2022 · 3 shares · 20,972 followersView post →
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Al-Najjar
@IbnNadjar · X
How can Worobey take part in this paper (Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province) and not mention this conclusion from it or use it in his new paper where he takes the earliest case to be 10/12/2029 ?!?!??!?!?
FTO @Daoyu15 https://t.co/irrxqAXb3h
Mar 14, 2022 · 11 likes · 3 shares · 213 followersView post →
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Daniel A. Walker
@danwalker9999 · X
@stuartjdneil @MJnanostretch …but not necessary or useful to invoke such scenarios.
A unknown disease which is often non- or weakly-symptomatic can move through a city without a trace.
The plausible interval for unknown first case has been estimated as mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2019.
https://t.co/HwE0XQ6G8N
Feb 11, 2022 · 1 like · 1,785 followersView post →
PS
Patrick Shaw Stewart
@PatrickSSte · X
2/ Worobey also quotes 18 Nov as the “mean estimated date of pandemic index case” citing Pekar
But Abstract of Pekar says, “our results define the period between MID-OCT AND MID-NOV 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged”
https://t.co/ZmLVsok7F4 https://t.co/Z7n1bHFtdM
26/ If this turns out to be correct, Pekar’s period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 corresponds not to the index case of Covid-19 as a whole as they suggest, but to the index case a more-transmissible variant, which now dominates
https://t.co/ZmLVsok7F4
Jan 2, 2022 · 16 likes · 2,115 followersView post →
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redway420
@redway420 · X
RT @PatrickSSte: @ColinDavdButler Worobey estimates the "index case" was 18 Nov. I'm suggesting this wasn't the first CoV-2 case in humans…
Jan 1, 2022 · 1 share · 1,866 followersView post →
PS
Patrick Shaw Stewart
@PatrickSSte · X
@ColinDavdButler Worobey estimates the "index case" was 18 Nov. I'm suggesting this wasn't the first CoV-2 case in humans (because it was far too well-adapted/stable by Dec) but the first case of a more transmissible variant.
Names released when it couldn't be hidden
https://t.co/ZmLVsok7F4
Dec 31, 2021 · 1 like · 1 share · 2,115 followersView post →
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António Duarte
@AntGDuarte · X
@past_is_future @lab_leak @henri_mourant @DaveAtkinsonMD @PeaseRoland @angie_rasmussen @MichaelWorobey @ggronvall @PeterDaszak @MarionKoopmans @WildCRU_Ox @VIDOInterVac @usask @BBCWorld @jbloom_lab @Ayjchan This is a ground breaking article written by a top journalist who had access to official records.
It's deservedly quoted by @MichaelWorobey et al. in their important paper "Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province".
https://t.co/gHE1lNPgLW
https://t.co/fcMMZMFRAC
Sep 16, 2021 · 1 like · 1,365 followersView post →
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Isatou Sarr
@IsatouSarr4 · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/tw6ZL6hD7K
RT @PhraAthit: Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
This study comes to the conclusion that the pandemic started between mid-…
May 28, 2021 · 1 share · 2,928 followersView post →
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Georg Erber
@PhraAthit · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
This study comes to the conclusion that the pandemic started between mid-October and mid-November 2019, i.e. much earlier than the official timing.
https://t.co/sqm4817Rox
@Alex_on_A14 @babarlelephant @UK_Centrist Here's the Science paper that attempts to run the tape backwards:
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
https://t.co/PwEjtEoZeb
May 25, 2021 · 1 like · 8,706 followersView post →
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Jordan James Etem
@JordanJamesEtem · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/y0nG4UEzf4
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
The article defines the period from mid-October to mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of #SARSCoV2 emerged in Hubei province.
Brilliant paper. Stunning experimental design. Top ten of the century for me. Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/dTjWjsouUY
Missed it? Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/N2vKFbCQUP #Coronavirus may have emerged earlier than thought @ScienceMagazine https://t.co/FmCPGtSIqj
Mar 23, 2021 · 3 likes · 1 share · 6,802 followersView post →
ED
Edinburgh Infectious Diseases
@edin_EID · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/NlAV2jZRNa
Mar 23, 2021 · 1 like · 7,034 followersView post →
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J. McLaughlin
@cardcounterswin · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province - Science https://t.co/oVPpSjWWBe
RT @Thomas_Wilckens: Novel #Coronavirus Circulated Undetected for Months Before First #COVID19 Cases Discovered in Wuhan, China #Pandemic h…
Mar 22, 2021 · 1 share · 6,802 followersView post →
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hswj2018
@hswj2018 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 22, 2021 · 143 shares · 521 followersView post →
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smilealice12
@smilealice12 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 92 followersView post →
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Lucky
@Lucy29136877 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 123 followersView post →
呈
呈杰他爷爷
@upuCxYSqX2V4e9T · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 457 followersView post →
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mingzao
@MING31243748 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 144 followersView post →
山
山口麻衣(
@shankoumayi17 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 407 followersView post →
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Dr. Thomas Wilckens
@Thomas_Wilckens · X
Novel #Coronavirus Circulated Undetected for Months Before First #COVID19 Cases Discovered in Wuhan, China #Pandemic https://t.co/LBv9RV5tui "Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province" https://t.co/x7MYfHxD5P @ScienceMagazine https://t.co/w15DxensgM
Mar 21, 2021 · 2 likes · 1 share · 6,802 followersView post →
雄
@雄狮
@wen200912 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 34 followersView post →
孔
孔文举
@history20201 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 4,455 followersView post →
荆鸟
荆·棘·鸟-1
@9tKMy3eg4ntUc4Z · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 1,855 followersView post →
Kв
Kazu. Ogata Нет войне!
@ogataKCHGIM · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/8wncK1fOMa
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 166 followersView post →
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Susan
@Susan05651999 · X
RT @jsdfposjpqyuee1: 《科学》刚刚发表的研究成果,通过模型推测新冠病毒疫情最有可能出现在2019年10月中旬至11月中旬
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province https://t.co/Lvy…
Mar 21, 2021 · 143 shares · 55 followersView post →
ME
Medical Science and Technology #earlytreatments
@MedicalScitech · X
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
» https://t.co/cYfCpK2Ada
#SARSCoV2 circulated undetected months before first #2019nCoV #COVID19 cases in #Wuhan, #China: study @UCSanDiego @ScienceMagazine https://t.co/b7kA2qLtte
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*Βιβλιογραφία. Jonathan Pekar, et al. (18/3/2021). Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province. Science, eabf8003 DOI: 10.1126/science.abf8003. ΕΡΩΤΗΜΑΤΑ ...
Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province
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Pekar et al., Science. 10.1126/science.abf8003 (2021). First release: 18 March 2021 www.sciencemag.org. (Page numbers not final at time of first release) 1 ...
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Province,” Science, Vol. 372, No. 6540, March 18, 2021. As of July 18,. 2022: https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abf8003. Peters, Alexandra ...