Abstract

Plasma proteins derived from specific organs can estimate organ age and mortality, but their sensitivity to environmental factors and their robustness in forecasting onset of organ diseases and mortality remain unclear. To address this gap, we estimate the biological age of 11 organs using plasma proteomics data (2,916 proteins) from 44,498 individuals in the UK Biobank. Organ age estimates were sensitive to lifestyle factors and medications and were associated with future onset (within 17 years' follow-up) of a range of diseases, including heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 2 diabetes and Alzheimer's disease. Notably, having an especially aged brain posed a risk of Alzheimer's disease (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.1) that was similar to carrying one copy of APOE4, the strongest genetic risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer's disease, whereas a youthful brain (HR = 0.26) provided protection that was similar to carrying two copies of APOE2, independent of APOE genotype. Accrual of aged organs progressively increased mortality risk (2-4 aged organs, HR = 2.3; 5-7 aged organs, HR = 4.5; 8+ aged organs, HR = 8.3), whereas youthful brains and immune systems were uniquely associated with longevity (youthful brain, HR = 0.60 for mortality risk; youthful immune system, HR = 0.58; youthful both, HR = 0.44). Altogether, these findings support the use of plasma proteins for monitoring of organ health and point to the brain and immune systems as key targets for longevity interventions.